IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ2/2021-05-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy Market Risk Management under Uncertainty: A VaR Based on Wavelet Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh

    (Department of Economics, Business and Finance, Mutah University, Jordan,)

  • Ahmad Al-Saraireh

    (Department of Banking and Finance, Mutah University, Jordan)

  • Alessandra Canepa

    (Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti De MArtiis, University of Turin, Lungo Dora Siena, Turin, Italy,)

Abstract

This study contributes to the literature on energy market risk management and portfolio management by examining co-movements between several energy commodities in a portfolio context in light of the impact of several types of uncertainty over time and under high, medium, and low frequencies. Using of wavelet decomposition analysis, we first investigate the lead-lag relationship together with the power of the correlation over time between major renewable and non-renewable energy indexes and uncertainty indexes. Second, we explore the contribution of uncertainty to the energy portfolio. Our procedure reveals that a dependent relationship generally exists between energy returns and changes in uncertainty. The risks of clean energy and crude oil returns are more sensitive to financial uncertainties, whereas investing in GAS markets offers market diversification opportunities during periods of energy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Huthaifa Sameeh Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Saraireh & Alessandra Canepa, 2021. "Energy Market Risk Management under Uncertainty: A VaR Based on Wavelet Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 130-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-05-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/11404/6010
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/11404/6010
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    2. Huang, Yun-Hsun & Wu, Jung-Hua, 2008. "A portfolio risk analysis on electricity supply planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 627-641, February.
    3. Mellios, Constantin & Six, Pierre & Lai, Anh Ngoc, 2016. "Dynamic speculation and hedging in commodity futures markets with a stochastic convenience yield," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 493-504.
    4. Ma, Yan-Ran & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2019. "Spillovers between oil and stock returns in the US energy sector: Does idiosyncratic information matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 536-544.
    5. Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Giray Gozgor & Gokhan Karabulut, 2015. "The Impact Of World Energy Price Volatility On Aggregate Economic Activity In Developing Asian Economies," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(01), pages 1-20.
    6. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    7. Joëts, Marc, 2014. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 392-399.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright & Jose Maria Barrero, 2016. "Short- and Long-run Uncertainty," 2016 Meeting Papers 1576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Kumari Ranjeeni & Deepa Bannigidadmath, 2017. "New Evidence of Psychological Barrier from the Oil Market," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 457-469, October.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    12. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2019. "Dynamic Responses of Major Equity Markets to the US Fear Index," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, September.
    13. Liu, Bing-Yue & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2017. "Dynamic return-volatility dependence and risk measure of CoVaR in the oil market: A time-varying mixed copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 53-65.
    14. Muñoz, José Ignacio & Sánchez de la Nieta, Agustín A. & Contreras, Javier & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2009. "Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy: The Spanish case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5273-5284, December.
    15. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
    16. González-Pedraz, Carlos & Moreno, Manuel & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2014. "Tail risk in energy portfolios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 422-434.
    17. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk and dependence structure between oil and stock markets using a variational mode decomposition-based copula method," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 258-279.
    18. Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Njeh, Hassen, 2012. "Assessing the impacts of oil price fluctuations on stock returns in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2686-2695.
    19. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
    20. Lucheroni, Carlo & Mari, Carlo, 2017. "CO2 volatility impact on energy portfolio choice: A fully stochastic LCOE theory analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 278-290.
    21. Aloui, Riadh & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2016. "Uncertainty and crude oil returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-100.
    22. Mele, Antonio & Obayashi, Yoshiki & Shalen, Catherine, 2015. "Rate fears gauges and the dynamics of fixed income and equity volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 256-265.
    23. Mensi, Walid & Hkiri, Besma & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2018. "Analyzing time–frequency co-movements across gold and oil prices with BRICS stock markets: A VaR based on wavelet approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 74-102.
    24. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    25. Barry Nalebuff & David Scharfstein, 1987. "Testing in Models of Asymmetric Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(2), pages 265-277.
    26. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Suripto Suripto & Dedy Hermawan & Putri Irmal Sari & Ahmad Rifai, 2022. "Impact of Green Management and Earning Management of Energy Companies in Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 192-196, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Nehler, Henrik & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Uncertainties and extreme risk spillover in the energy markets: A time-varying copula-based CoVaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-126.
    2. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Chen, Fu-Rui & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2021. "Network connectedness between natural gas markets, uncertainty and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    3. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Time-varying energy and stock market integration in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 777-792.
    4. Bing‐Yue Liu & Qiang Ji & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ying Fan, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2612-2636, April.
    5. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    6. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2017. "Can stock market investors hedge energy risk? Evidence from Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 559-570.
    7. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Assessing the extreme risk spillovers of international commodities on maritime markets: A GARCH-Copula-CoVaR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
    9. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Zhu, Zhaobo & Ji, Qiang & Sun, Licheng & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2020. "Oil price shocks, investor sentiment, and asset pricing anomalies in the oil and gas industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Systemic risk and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 142-158.
    13. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Yan, Xing-Xing, 2020. "The impact of US economic policy uncertainty on WTI crude oil returns in different time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 750-768.
    14. Zhiwei Zhang & Dayong Zhang & Fei Wu & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A copula‐based network approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2044-2063, April.
    15. Wu, Fei & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Systemic risk and financial contagion across top global energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    16. Xia, Tongshui & Yao, Chen-Xi & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2020. "Dynamic and frequency-domain spillover among economic policy uncertainty, stock and housing markets in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
    19. Hemrit, Wael & Benlagha, Noureddine, 2021. "Does renewable energy index respond to the pandemic uncertainty?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 336-347.
    20. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & de Bruin, Anne, 2020. "Energy commodity uncertainties and the systematic risk of US industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VaR Based on Wavelet Approach; Energy market; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2021-05-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.