IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v112y2020ics0378426617302960.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields

Author

Listed:
  • Kolokolova, Olga
  • Lin, Ming-Tsung
  • Poon, Ser-Huang

Abstract

This paper investigates the information content of aggregate hedge fund flow and its predictive power with respect to bond yields. Using a sample of 9725 hedge funds from 1994 to 2012, we find that fund flow is negatively related to the changes in 10-year Treasury and Moody’s Baa bond yields one month ahead. This relation is still pronounced after controlling for other determinants of yield changes, including the amount of arbitrage capital available in the economy, suggesting a non-trivial effect of flow-induced hedge fund trading on bond yields. Flow impact on corporate bonds is further amplified during periods of decreasing market liquidity, consistent with a fire-sale hypothesis. Hedge fund flow also predicts convergence between constant maturity swap rate and constant maturity Treasury rate, as well as between the TIPS and Treasury bond yields, suggesting that hedge funds exploit arbitrage opportunities in these fixed-income markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolokolova, Olga & Lin, Ming-Tsung & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2020. "Too big to ignore? Hedge fund flows and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:112:y:2020:i:c:s0378426617302960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.12.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426617302960
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.12.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W., 2011. "What happened to the quants in August 2007? Evidence from factors and transactions data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, February.
    2. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    3. Sadka, Ronnie, 2010. "Liquidity risk and the cross-section of hedge-fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 54-71, October.
    4. Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gérard & Arjan Kadareja & Simone Manganelli, 2014. "Measuring Comovements by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 645-678.
    5. Mathias S. Kruttli & Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2015. "The Impact of Hedge Funds on Asset Markets," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 185-226.
    6. Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013. "Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
    7. Grace Xing Hu & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2013. "Noise as Information for Illiquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2341-2382, December.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    9. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    10. Dudley, Evan & Nimalendran, Mahendrarajah, 2011. "Margins and Hedge Fund Contagion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1227-1257, October.
    11. Teo, Melvyn, 2011. "The liquidity risk of liquid hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 24-44, April.
    12. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-307, September.
    13. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ang, Andrew & Gorovyy, Sergiy & van Inwegen, Gregory B., 2011. "Hedge fund leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 102-126, October.
    15. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Veronika K. Pool, 2009. "Do Hedge Fund Managers Misreport Returns? Evidence from the Pooled Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2288, October.
    16. Yawen Jiao, 2013. "Hedge Funds and Equity Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 1141-1177.
    17. Itzhak Ben‐David & Francesco Franzoni & Augustin Landier & Rabih Moussawi, 2013. "Do Hedge Funds Manipulate Stock Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2383-2434, December.
    18. Hodder, James E. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Kolokolova, Olga, 2014. "Recovering Delisting Returns of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 797-815, June.
    19. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    20. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    21. Nicole M. Boyson & Christof W. Stahel & René M. Stulz, 2010. "Hedge Fund Contagion and Liquidity Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1789-1816, October.
    22. Darwin Choi & Mila Getmansky & Brian Henderson & Heather Tookes, 2010. "Convertible Bond Arbitrageurs as Suppliers of Capital," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2492-2522, June.
    23. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2014. "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2151-2197, October.
    24. Jefferson Duarte & Francis A. Longstaff & Fan Yu, 2007. "Risk and Return in Fixed-Income Arbitrage: Nickels in Front of a Steamroller?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 769-811.
    25. Kang, Namho & Kondor, Péter & Sadka, Ronnie, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Reduce Idiosyncratic Risk?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 843-877, August.
    26. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhehao Huang & Zhenghui Li & Zhenzhen Wang, 2020. "Utility Indifference Valuation for Defaultable Corporate Bond with Credit Rating Migration," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-26, November.
    2. Laleh Samarbakhsh & Meet Shah, 2021. "Fixed income mutual fund performance during and after a crisis: a Canadian case," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(4), pages 654-676, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    2. Frank Hespeler & Giuseppe Loiacono, 2017. "Monitoring systemic risk in the hedge fund sector," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1859-1883, December.
    3. Bussière, Matthieu & Hoerova, Marie & Klaus, Benjamin, 2015. "Commonality in hedge fund returns: Driving factors and implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 266-280.
    4. Petri Jylhä & Kalle Rinne & Matti Suominen, 2014. "Do Hedge Funds Supply or Demand Liquidity?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1259-1298.
    5. Mathias S. Kruttli & Phillip J. Monin & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2017. "Investor Concentration, Flows, and Cash Holdings : Evidence from Hedge Funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Dang, Tung Lam & Moshirian, Fariborz & Zhang, Bohui, 2019. "Liquidity shocks and institutional investors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 184-209.
    7. Siegmann, Arjen & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2017. "The evolving beta-liquidity relationship of hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 286-303.
    8. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2013. "Hedge fund contagion and risk-adjusted returns: A Markov-switching dynamic factor approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 16-29.
    9. Hong, Xin, 2014. "The dynamics of hedge fund share restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-99.
    10. Aragon, George O. & Martin, J. Spencer & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 345-361.
    11. Schaub, Nic & Schmid, Markus, 2013. "Hedge fund liquidity and performance: Evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 671-692.
    12. Richard Sias & H. J. Turtle & Blerina Zykaj, 2016. "Hedge Fund Crowds and Mispricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 764-784, March.
    13. Yao Zheng & Eric Osmer, 2018. "The Relationship between Hedge Fund Performance and Stock Market Sentiment," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-29, September.
    14. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    15. Mathias S. Kruttli & Phillip J. Monin & Lubomir Petrasek & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2021. "Hedge Fund Treasury Trading and Funding Fragility: Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Fan Yang & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Novak, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers IES 2022/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2022.
    17. Hany A. Shawky & Ying Wang, 2017. "Can Liquidity Risk Explain Diseconomies of Scale in Hedge Funds?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(02), pages 1-35, June.
    18. Charles Cao & Lubomir Petrasek, 2011. "Liquidity risk and hedge fund ownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    20. Kondor, Péter & Sadka, Ronnie & Kang, Namho, 2011. "Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in the Cross-Section of Stocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 8307, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hedge funds; Flows; Bond yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:112:y:2020:i:c:s0378426617302960. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.