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Growth, cycles and convergence in US regional time series

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  • Carvalho, Vasco M.
  • Harvey, Andrew C.

Abstract

This article reports the results of fitting unobserved components (structural) time series models to data on real income per capita in eight regions of the United States. The aim is to establish stylised facts about cycles and convergence. A new model is developed in which convergence components are combined with a common trend and cycles. These convergence components are formulated as a second-order error correction mechanism which allows temporary divergence while imposing eventual convergence. This model is able to characterise the convergence patterns of all but the two richest US regions; these appear to have been diverging from the others in recent years. The use of unit root tests for testing convergence is critically assessed in the light of these results.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 21 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 667-686

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:21:y:2005:i:4:p:667-686

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

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References

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  2. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Convergence revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 249-265, April.
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  4. Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
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  6. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  7. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Harvey, A. & Bates, D., 2003. "Multivariate Unit Root Tests and Testing for Convergence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0301, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 1999. "Tests of Common Stochastic Trends," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9902, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional cohesion: Evidence and theories of regional growth and convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Vasco M.Carvalho & Andrew C.Harvey, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Robert F. Engle & João Victor Issler, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), pages 149-176, April.
  13. Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990. "Testing For Common Features," NBER Technical Working Papers 0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
  15. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-60, Oct.-Dec..
  16. Loewy, Michael B. & Papell, David H., 1996. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 587-598, December.
  17. Carlino, Gerald A. & Mills, Leonard O., 1993. "Are U.S. regional incomes converging? : A time series analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 335-346, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christopoulos Dimitris K & Leon-Ledesma Miguel A., 2011. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-33, May.
  2. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Common Cycles in Labour Market Separation Rates for Australian States," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 991, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Vasco M.Carvalho & Andrew C.Harvey, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0221, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Steven Clark & T. Coggin, 2009. "Trends, Cycles and Convergence in U.S. Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 264-283, October.
  5. Holger Breinlich & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2013. "Regional growth and regional decline," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51575, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Mihai Nica, 2004. "Convergence in Mississippi: A Spatial Approach," Urban/Regional 0408007, EconWPA.
  7. Magdalena Osinska & Karolina Kluth, 2010. "Convergence of Greek Economy with the EU and Some Comparisons with Polish Experience," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 139-156.
  8. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
  9. Rico Ihle & Linde Götz & Ofir D. Rubin, 2011. "State-Space Cointegration Modeling for the Analysis of Exogenous Shocks to Prices in Israeli-Palestinian Food Trade," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 100, Courant Research Centre PEG.

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