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Growth, Cycles and Convergence in US Regional Time Series

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Author Info
Vasco M.Carvalho
Andrew C.Harvey

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Abstract

This article reports the results of fitting unobserved components (structural) time series models to data on real income per capita in eight regions of the United States. The aim is to establish stylised facts about cycles and convergence. A new model is developed in which convergence components are combined with a common trend and cycles. These convergence components are formulated as a second-order error correction mechanism which allows temporary divergence while imposing eventual convergence. This model is able to characterise the convergence patterns of all but the two richest US regions; these appear to have been diverging from the others in recent years. The use of unit root tests for testing convergence is critically assessed in the light of these results.

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File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/dae/repec/cam/pdf/wp0221.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0221.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0221

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Related research
Keywords: balanced growth; error correction mechanism; Kalman filter; signal extraction; unobserved components;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
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  2. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dimitris , Chrsitopoulos & Miguel , Leon-Ledesma, 2009. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," MPRA Paper 14566, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert Dixon, 2007. "Common Cycles in Labour Market Separation Rates for Australian States," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 991, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
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