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Speculative trading and stock returns: A stochastic dominance analysis of the Chinese A-share market

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  • Fong, Wai Mun
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    Abstract

    The pricing of A-shares in China has long puzzled financial economists. This paper applies recent tests of stochastic dominance (SD) to examine whether differences in the return distributions of A- and B-shares in China are consistent with market efficiency. As SD is nonparametric, market efficiency can be examined without the joint test problem arising from misspecifications in the asset pricing benchmark. Our results show A-shares have second-order dominated B-shares from 1996 to 2005. This dominance was most significant during the market segmentation period, but has continued, albeit to a lesser extent even after the B-share market was opened to local investors in 2001. Our results are robust to using residual returns from an international asset pricing model instead of raw returns. We conclude that the superior performance of A-shares cannot be attributed to risk. The results are more likely due to a return bias caused by intense speculation among retail individuals under limited arbitrage.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 712-727

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:4:p:712-727

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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    Keywords: Stochastic dominance Market efficiency Market segmentation Arbitrage;

    References

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    1. Chan, Kalok & Menkveld, Albert J. & Yang, Zhishu, 2007. "The informativeness of domestic and foreign investors' stock trades: Evidence from the perfectly segmented Chinese market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 391-415, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xinwei Zheng, 2011. "Asymmetric information and market collapse: Evidence from the Chinese Market," Financial Econometics Series 2011_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2011. "The relationship between liquidity and returns on the Chinese stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 259-266, June.
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Xinwei Zheng, 2012. "Asymmetric Information and Market Decline: Evidence from the Chinese Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(03), pages 1250019-1-1.
    4. Schuppli, Michael & Bohl, Martin T., 2010. "Do foreign institutional investors destabilize China's A-share markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 36-50, February.

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