Welfare analysis of currency regimes with defaultable debts
AbstractWe modify the Cole and Kehoe model by including domestic debt. According to the original model, a speculative attack on a high debt level issued abroad triggers external debt default. Here, it is possible to inflate away the domestic debt to avoid the external debt default. We consider two possibilities for domestic debt denomination: (i) local currency and (ii) common currency. In the second case, inflation depends on a monetary union decision. Our numerical results show that to have a debt share denominated in a common currency is optimal when the refinancing risks are highly correlated across union members. Otherwise, the best is to keep the domestic debt denominated in local currency. Finally, the extreme case of having all debt issued abroad and denominated in a foreign currency is suitable when, under alternative regimes, suboptimal inflation motivated by political factors is likely. Although the paper was originally developed for emerging market economies, it sheds some light on the recent Eurozone crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.
Volume (Year): 89 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552
Dollarization; Optimum currency area; Speculative attacks; Debt crisis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
- Yue, Vivian Z., 2010.
"Sovereign default and debt renegotiation,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
- Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008.
"Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
- Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México.
- Aloisio Pessoa de Araújo & Márcia Saraiva Leon, 2002. "Ataques Especulativos sobre Dívidas e Dolarização," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 56(1), pages 7-46, January.
- Neumeyer, P.A., 1995.
"Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effect of a Monetary Union,"
DELTA Working Papers
95-27, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March.
- Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000.
"Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
- Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis," Staff Report 210, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Du, Wenxin & Schreger, Jesse, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.