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Trend shocks and sudden stops

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  • Seoane, Hernán D.
  • Yurdagul, Emircan

Abstract

Sudden Stops are characterized by large output drops, current account reversals and real exchange rate depreciation followed by a slow recovery, a pattern that has proven to be hard to capture with standard open economy models. This paper extends the standard models with endogenous collateral constraints to include permanent income (trend) shocks and studies the optimal policy design in this setting. We find that shocks to the trend play an important role in generating a Sudden Stop followed by a slow recovery, a result that is also supported by the data. With trend and transitory shocks, optimal capital control policy is procyclical, although less so than under transitory shocks only.

Suggested Citation

  • Seoane, Hernán D. & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2019. "Trend shocks and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:121:y:2019:i:c:s0022199619300765
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103252
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierri, Damian Rene & Reffett, Kevin, 2021. "Memory, multiple equilibria and emerging market crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 32871, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Pierri, Damian Rene & Montes Rojas, Gabriel & Mira, José, 2020. "Persistent current account deficits and balance of payments crises," UC3M Working papers. Economics 34239, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," NBER Working Papers 29476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bassanin, Marzio & Faia, Ester & Patella, Valeria, 2021. "Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Davis, J. Scott & Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2023. "Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Juan Herreño & Carlos Rondón-Moreno, 2022. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle Under Imperfect Information," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 940, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    9. Bengui, Julien & Bianchi, Javier, 2022. "Macroprudential policy with leakages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Emter, Lorenz, 2023. "Leverage cycles, growth shocks, and sudden stops in capital inflows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 711-731.
    11. Hwang, Seolwoong & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Real business cycles in emerging countries: Are Asian business cycles different from Latin American business cycles?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Florencia S. Airaudo & Hernán D. Seoane, 2021. "The Trend-cycle Connection," Working Papers 97, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Borrowing constraints; Trend shocks; Sudden stops; Optimal capital controls;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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