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Diffusion of new technology generations in mobile communications

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  • Bohlin, Anders
  • Gruber, Harald
  • Koutroumpis, Pantelis
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    Abstract

    The study identifies factors that affect the diffusion of new generations of mobile telecommunications technologies. Per capita income, urbanisation and Internet/broadband penetration, as well as regulation, positively affect diffusion across all generations of mobile technologies. However, there are also several remarkable differences in diffusion patterns over generations. Diffusion of first generation technologies boosts the adoption process of second generation networks, but second generation adoption negatively affects adoption of third generation technologies. Second generation technologies are unaffected by the spread of third generation technologies. Competition between firms has been found to be the key determinant of the diffusion speed across all generations, but there are indications that the effect is dissipating in the transition from second to third generation. Second generation markets show a switch in the influence of standards competition, with a positive effect on diffusion in the early phase and a negative effect later on.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Information Economics and Policy.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 51-60

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:iepoli:v:22:y:2010:i:1:p:51-60

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505549

    Related research

    Keywords: Mobile telecommunications Diffusion of innovation Technology generations Competition Regulation;

    References

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    1. Koski, Heli & Kretschmer, Tobias, 2002. "Entry, Standards and Competition : Firm Strategies and the Diffusion of Mobile Telephony," Discussion Papers 824, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    2. Jun, Duk B. & Kim, Seon K. & Park, Yoon S. & Park, Myoung H. & Wilson, Amy R., 2002. "Forecasting telecommunication service subscribers in substitutive and competitive environments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-581.
    3. Jerry A. Hausman, 1997. "Valuing the Effect of Regulation on New Services in Telecommunications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1997 Micr), pages 1-54.
    4. Gruber,Harald, 2005. "The Economics of Mobile Telecommunications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843270, April.
    5. Lars-Hendrik Roller & Leonard Waverman, 2001. "Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 909-923, September.
    6. Geroski, P. A., 2000. "Models of technology diffusion," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 603-625, April.
    7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    8. Sargan, J D, 1980. "Some Tests of Dynamic Specification for a Single Equation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 879-97, May.
    9. Harald Gruber, 1995. "Market Structure, Learning and Product Innovation: Evidence for the EPROM Market," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 87-101.
    10. Liikanen, Jukka & Stoneman, Paul & Toivanen, Otto, 2004. "Intergenerational effects in the diffusion of new technology: the case of mobile phones," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1137-1154, November.
    11. John A. Norton & Frank M. Bass, 1987. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(9), pages 1069-1086, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Harald Gruber & Pantelis Koutroumpis, 2013. "Competition enhancing regulation and diffusion of innovation: the case of broadband networks," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 168-195, April.
    2. Gruber, Harald & Koutroumpis, Pantelis, 2011. "Procompetitive infrastructure sector regulation and diffusion of innovation: The case of broadband networks," 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest 2011: Innovative ICT Applications - Emerging Regulatory, Economic and Policy Issues 52161, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    3. Sheikh Taher ABU, 2014. "Competition and Innovation in Telecom Sector: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries," Informatica Economica, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 27-39.

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