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How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets

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  • Evrensel, Ayse
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

We employ a theoretical model to interpret the liquidity and moral hazard effects of IMF support during a financial crisis. We then estimate the response of forward exchange markets to IMF-related announcements, using data on the 3-, 9-, and 12-month forward exchange rates. Our results indicate that the announcement of IMF negotiations is associated with a premium on the baht and the rupiah, where the premium is much larger on the latter. This result is largely consistent with the responses of stock and bond markets, especially when country-specific data are employed.

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  • Evrensel, Ayse & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 121-134, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:4:y:2008:i:2:p:121-134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kutan, Ali M. & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Sudjana, Brasukra G., 2012. "IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 164-182.
    3. Ali M. Kutan & Yaz Gülnür Muradoğlu & Zhong Yu, 2016. "Worldwide impact of IMF policies during the Asian crisis: who does the IMF help, creditors or crisis countries?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 116-147, June.

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