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How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets

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  • Evrensel, Ayse
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

We employ a theoretical model to interpret the liquidity and moral hazard effects of IMF support during a financial crisis. We then estimate the response of forward exchange markets to IMF-related announcements, using data on the 3-, 9-, and 12-month forward exchange rates. Our results indicate that the announcement of IMF negotiations is associated with a premium on the baht and the rupiah, where the premium is much larger on the latter. This result is largely consistent with the responses of stock and bond markets, especially when country-specific data are employed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 4 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 121-134

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:4:y:2008:i:2:p:121-134

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

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References

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  1. Steven Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Stephen Grenville, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 43-60.
  3. Ross McLeod, 2008. "Survey Of Recent Developments," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 183-208.
  4. Ali Kutan & Brasukra Sudjana, 2003. "Investor reaction to IMF actions in the indonesian financial crisis," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 181-190.
  5. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Impact of IMF-related news on capital markets: Further evidence from bond spreads in Indonesia and Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-160, April.
  6. Ashoka Mody & Barry J. Eichengreen & Kenneth Kletzer, 2005. "The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 05/84, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2006. "Creditor moral hazard in stock markets: Empirical evidence from Indonesia and Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 640-654, June.
  8. Zwart, Sanne, 2007. "The mixed blessing of IMF intervention: Signalling versus liquidity support," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 149-174, July.
  9. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Bernardo Guimaraes & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "International Lending of Last Resort and Moral Hazard: A Model of IMF's Catalytic Finance," NBER Working Papers 10125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The “Overborrowing Syndrome”," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
  13. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Moral hazard, asset price bubbles, capital flows, and the East Asian crisis:: the first tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 637-657, August.
  14. Stephen Grenville, 2004. "The IMF and the Indonesian crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 77-94.
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Cited by:
  1. Kutan, Ali M. & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Sudjana, Brasukra G., 2012. "IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 164-182.

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