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Do leveraged ETFs really amplify late-day returns and volatility?

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  • Ivanov, Ivan T.
  • Lenkey, Stephen L.

Abstract

The design of leveraged and inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has raised concerns that they may exacerbate volatility in financial markets by mechanically rebalancing their portfolios in the same direction as contemporaneous returns. We show theoretically, however, that capital flows can lower ETF rebalancing demand and completely eliminate it in the limit. Using a sample of U.S. equity-based ETFs from 2006 to 2014, we find that capital flows substantially reduce ETF rebalancing demand, even during periods of severe market stress. After accounting for capital flows and standard risk factors, we find that the impact of ETF rebalancing on late-day returns and volatility is economically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivanov, Ivan T. & Lenkey, Stephen L., 2018. "Do leveraged ETFs really amplify late-day returns and volatility?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 36-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:41:y:2018:i:c:p:36-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2018.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & Mathias S. Kruttli & Patrick E. McCabe & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "The Shift from Active to Passive Investing : Potential Risks to Financial Stability?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-060r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 29 Jun 2020.
    2. Anders Merrild Posselt, 2022. "Dynamics in the VIX complex," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1665-1687, September.
    3. De Rossi, Giuliano & Steliaros, Michael, 2022. "The Shift from Active to Passive and its Effect on Intraday Stock Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard, 2021. "The market impact of predictable flows: Evidence from leveraged VIX products," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Marszk, Adam & Lechman, Ewa, 2021. "Reshaping financial systems: The role of ICT in the diffusion of financial innovations – Recent evidence from European countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Ramesh Adhikari & Humnath Panta & M. Kabir Hassan, 2020. "Performance of ProShares Triple-Leveraged Equity ETFs," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-18.
    7. Isao Yagi & Shunya Maruyama & Takanobu Mizuta, 2020. "Trading Strategies of a Leveraged ETF in a Continuous Double Auction Market Using an Agent-Based Simulation," Papers 2010.13036, arXiv.org.
    8. Fos, Vyacheslav & Chinco, Alex, 2019. "The Sound Of Many Funds Rebalancing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leveraged ETFs; Capital flows; Late-day returns; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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