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The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty

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  • Borochin, Paul A.
  • Cicon, James E.
  • DeLisle, R. Jared
  • Price, S. McKay

Abstract

Quarterly earnings conference calls convey fundamental information, as well as manager and analyst opinion about the firm. We examine how market uncertainty regarding firm valuation is affected by conference call tones. Using textual analysis of all publicly available earnings calls (2002–2012) for U.S. firms, we find measures of conference call tones are negatively related to measures of firm value uncertainty from the equity options market. Overall, while value uncertainty is more sensitive to analyst tones than manager tones, differences between analyst and manager tones are strongly associated with increases in value uncertainty. Tone spreads convey important signals to market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Borochin, Paul A. & Cicon, James E. & DeLisle, R. Jared & Price, S. McKay, 2018. "The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 75-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:40:y:2018:i:c:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2017.12.003
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    2. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta & Bhanu Pratap, 2022. "Saved by the bell? Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns and central bank interventions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    3. Yu Zhao & Shaopeng Wei & Yu Guo & Qing Yang & Xingyan Chen & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "Combining Intra-Risk and Contagion Risk for Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction Using Graph Neural Networks," Papers 2202.03874, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    4. Loughran, Tim & McDonald, Bill & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2019. "Assimilation of oil news into prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 105-118.
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    7. Devrimi Kaya & Christian Maier & Tobias Böhmer, 2020. "Empirische Kapitalmarktforschung zu Conference Calls: Eine Literaturanalyse [Empirical Capital Market Research on Conference Calls: A Literature Review]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 183-212, June.
    8. Shuyu Zhang & Walter Aerts & Dunli Zhang & Zishan Chen, 2022. "Positive tone and initial coin offering," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2237-2266, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings conference calls; Disclosure; Textual analysis; Scripting; Option implied volatility; Uncertainty; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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