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Tips and Tells from Managers: How Analysts and the Market Read between the Lines of Conference Calls

Author

Listed:
  • Druz, Marina

    (Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Wagner, Alexander F.

    (Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Zeckhauser, Richard

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Stock prices react significantly to the tone (negativity of words) managers use on earnings conference calls. This reaction reflects reasonably rational use of information. "Tone surprise"--the residual when negativity in managerial tone is regressed on the firm's recent economic performance and CEO fixed effects--predicts future earnings and analyst uncertainty. Prices move more, as hypothesized, in firms where tone surprise predicts more strongly. Experienced analysts respond appropriately in revising their forecasts; inexperienced analysts overreact (underreact) to tone surprises in presentations (answers). Post-call price drift, like post-earnings announcement drift, suggests less-than-full-use of information embedded in managerial tone.

Suggested Citation

  • Druz, Marina & Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2015. "Tips and Tells from Managers: How Analysts and the Market Read between the Lines of Conference Calls," Working Paper Series rwp15-006, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp15-006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elizabeth Demers & Clara Vega, 2008. "Soft information in earnings announcements: news or noise?," International Finance Discussion Papers 951, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Borochin, Paul A. & Cicon, James E. & DeLisle, R. Jared & Price, S. McKay, 2018. "The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 75-91.
    2. Kate Suslava, 2021. "“Stiff Business Headwinds and Uncharted Economic Waters”: The Use of Euphemisms in Earnings Conference Calls," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(11), pages 7184-7213, November.
    3. Stephen J. Terry, 2015. "The Macro Impact of Short-Termism," Discussion Papers 15-022, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Hope, Ole-Kristian & Wang, Jingjing, 2018. "Management deception, big-bath accounting, and information asymmetry: Evidence from linguistic analysis," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 33-51.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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