IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v55y2023ipas1544612323001940.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate volatility and intraday jump probability with periodicity filters using a local robust variance

Author

Listed:
  • YI, Chae-Deug

Abstract

This study analyzes the realized volatility and discrete jump volatility of Korean won–U.S. dollar exchange rate returns using high-frequency five-minute returns from 2010 to 2021 using several volatility periodicity filters. The returns exhibit lower daily jump probabilities. Moreover, with the Lee and Mykland (LM), Laurent-Shi (LS), and combined LH and LS jump statistics, and periodicity filters, the returns always have significantly lower jump probabilities using local robust variance with average truncated power variation,.

Suggested Citation

  • YI, Chae-Deug, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and intraday jump probability with periodicity filters using a local robust variance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323001940
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103821
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323001940
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103821?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
    2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "Jump probability using volatility periodicity filters in US Dollar/Euro exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    7. Chernov, Mikhail & Ronald Gallant, A. & Ghysels, Eric & Tauchen, George, 2003. "Alternative models for stock price dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 225-257.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    9. P.J. Rousseeuw & A.M. Leroy, 1988. "A robust scale estimator based on the shortest half," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 42(2), pages 103-116, June.
    10. Laurent, Sébastien & Shi, Shuping, 2020. "Volatility estimation and jump detection for drift–diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 259-290.
    11. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    12. Tim Bollerslev & Viktor Todorov, 2011. "Estimation of Jump Tails," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1727-1783, November.
    13. Christophe Croux & Sébastien Laurent, 2011. "Outlyingness Weighted Covariation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 657-684.
    14. Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, June.
    15. Khademalomoom, Siroos & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2019. "Intraday effects of the currency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 65-77.
    16. Michael Johannes, 2004. "The Statistical and Economic Role of Jumps in Continuous-Time Interest Rate Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 227-260, February.
    17. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    18. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "Jump probability using volatility periodicity filters in US Dollar/Euro exchange rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Corsi, Fulvio & Pirino, Davide & Renò, Roberto, 2010. "Threshold bipower variation and the impact of jumps on volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(2), pages 276-288, December.
    3. repec:hal:journl:peer-00741630 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Per Frederiksen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2010. "Continuous-time models, realized volatilities, and testable distributional implications for daily stock returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 233-261.
    5. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    6. Francesco Audrino & Yujia Hu, 2016. "Volatility Forecasting: Downside Risk, Jumps and Leverage Effect," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01442618, HAL.
    8. Fulvio Corsi & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renò, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: the jumps do matter," Department of Economics University of Siena 534, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    9. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
    11. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    12. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel & Podolskij, Mark, 2010. "Realised quantile-based estimation of the integrated variance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 74-98, November.
    13. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda & Jan Novotný, 2016. "Shluková analýza skoků na kapitálových trzích [Cluster Analysis of Jumps on Capital Markets]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 127-144.
    14. Tauchen, George & Zhou, Hao, 2011. "Realized jumps on financial markets and predicting credit spreads," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 102-118, January.
    15. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ø. Nielsen & Thomas Busch, 2006. "The Information Content Of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility And Price Jumps," Working Paper 1188, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    16. Liu, Yi & Liu, Huifang & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting return jumps using realized variation measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 63-80.
    17. Christensen, Kim & Oomen, Roel C.A. & Podolskij, Mark, 2014. "Fact or friction: Jumps at ultra high frequency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 576-599.
    18. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer, 2017. "The impact of jumps and leverage in forecasting covolatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 638-650, October.
    19. Rangel, José Gonzalo, 2011. "Macroeconomic news, announcements, and stock market jump intensity dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1263-1276, May.
    20. Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S., 2020. "High-frequency jump tests: Which test should we use?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 478-487.
    21. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Volatility; Jump; Periodicity filter; Average truncated power variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323001940. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.