IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v50y2022ics1544612322004573.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Bouri, Elie
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Nel, Jacobus
  • Shiba, Sisa

Abstract

We investigate the effect of the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases on real gold returns over the period 1258–2020 using a predictive quantile regression model, which is justified by the features of non-normality, nonlinearity, and structural breaks in the dataset involving real gold returns and the probability of fatality. We show that real gold returns hedge the probability of fatality due to contagious diseases primarily when the gold market is bullish. However, the hedging ability is insignificant when the gold market is bearish. These results are important for investors seeking refuge in gold during rare disaster events.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Shiba, Sisa, 2022. "Contagious diseases and gold: Over 700 years of evidence from quantile regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004573
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322004573
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Assessing the safe haven property of the gold market during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Asai, Manabu & Gupta, Rangan & McAleer, Michael, 2020. "Forecasting volatility and co-volatility of crude oil and gold futures: Effects of leverage, jumps, spillovers, and geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 933-948.
    5. Ali, Mohsin & Alam, Nafis & Rizvi, Syed Aun R., 2020. "Coronavirus (COVID-19) — An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Bouri, Elie & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Forecasting power of infectious diseases-related uncertainty for gold realized variance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. Sim, Nicholas & Zhou, Hongtao, 2015. "Oil prices, US stock return, and the dependence between their quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-8.
    10. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Dawar, Ishaan & Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Crude oil prices and clean energy stock indices: Lagged and asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 288-299.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
    14. Zhang, Hongwei & Hong, Huojun & Guo, Yaoqi & Yang, Cai, 2022. "Information spillover effects from media coverage to the crude oil, gold, and Bitcoin markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 267-285.
    15. Abdallah Dah & Ali Fakih, 2016. "Decomposing Gender Wage Differentials Using Quantile Regression: Evidence from the Lebanese Banking Sector," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 171-185, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karmakar, Sayar & Gupta, Rangan & Cepni, Oguzhan & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023. "Climate risks and predictability of the trading volume of gold: Evidence from an INGARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Bruno Coric & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Economic Disasters and Inequality," Working Papers 202255, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Bruno Ćorić & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Economic disasters and inequality: a note," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3527-3543, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2022. "Can Twitter-based economic uncertainty predict safe-haven assets under all market conditions and investment horizons?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang & Pierdzioch, Christian & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2023. "Forecasting the conditional distribution of realized volatility of oil price returns: The role of skewness over 1859 to 2023," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    4. Gupta, Rangan & Subramaniam, Sowmya & Bouri, Elie & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 289-298.
    5. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Lidong Pang & Muhammad Umar & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2022. "Will Gold Always Shine amid World Uncertainty?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3425-3438, September.
    7. Dong, Zibing & Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global stock sectors: Evidence from time-varying connectedness and asymmetric nexus analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Iqbal, Najaf & Fareed, Zeeshan & Wan, Guangcai & Shahzad, Farrukh, 2021. "Asymmetric nexus between COVID-19 outbreak in the world and cryptocurrency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Rothovius, Timo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "Climate risk and green investments: New evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Ahmad, Wasim & Kutan, Ali M. & Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur & Kattumuri, Ruth, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and firm-level dynamics in the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2019. "The effects of oil price shocks on Asian exchange rates: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-63.
    12. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    13. Bouri, Elie & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Forecasting power of infectious diseases-related uncertainty for gold realized variance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    14. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Gold and US sectoral stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Kamal, Javed Bin & Wohar, Mark & Kamal, Khaled Bin, 2022. "Do gold, oil, equities, and currencies hedge economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks during covid crisis?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Cheng, Sheng & Deng, MingJie & Liang, Ruibin & Cao, Yan, 2023. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among global oil, gold, and Chinese sectors in the presence of major emergencies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    17. Kuan-Min Wang & Yuan-Ming Lee, 2023. "Are life insurance futures a safe haven during COVID-19?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
    18. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    20. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real gold returns; contagious diseases; COVID-19 outbreak; probability of fatality; predictive quantile regression model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004573. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.