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Commodity financialisation and price co-movement: Lessons from two centuries of evidence

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  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Umar, Zaghum
  • Mikutowski, Mateusz

Abstract

The recent development of financialisation is argued to have led to an unprecedented rise in the dependence between commodity returns. Using 170 years’ worth of data and several novel dependency measures, we demonstrate that the recent cross-commodity correlations are neither unprecedented nor unique. Similar episodes have occurred multiple times throughout history, even as far back as the 19th century, and these events usually coincide with major economic disruptions. There is no long-run increase in the co-movement of commodity returns. Our results cast doubt on the link between the recent peak in cross-commodity correlations and market financialisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Commodity financialisation and price co-movement: Lessons from two centuries of evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319308402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101492
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    4. Cheng Xin & Kailin Ji & Hao Chang & Yang Li & Ya-Qiong Liu, 2022. "Price Co-Movement between Electrical Equipment and Metal Commodities—A Time-Frequency Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of market uncertainties on agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    6. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    7. Umar, Zaghum & Abrar, Afsheen & Hadhri, Sinda & Sokolova, Tatiana, 2023. "The connectedness of oil shocks, green bonds, sukuks and conventional bonds," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. El Montasser, Ghassen & Malek Belhoula, Mohamed & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2023. "Co-explosivity versus leading effects: Evidence from crude oil and agricultural commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Trabelsi, Nader & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Oil shocks and equity markets: The case of GCC and BRICS economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    10. Bernardina Algieri & Arturo Leccadito & Pietro Toscano, 2021. "A Time-Varying Gerber Statistic: Application of a Novel Correlation Metric to Commodity Price Co-Movements," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-16, May.
    11. Agyei, Samuel Kwaku & Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between global commodity sectors, news sentiment, and sub-Saharan African equities," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Umar, Zaghum & Aharon, David Y. & Esparcia, Carlos & AlWahedi, Wafa, 2022. "Spillovers between sovereign yield curve components and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Alomari, Mohammad & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Extreme return spillovers and connectedness between crude oil and precious metals futures markets: Implications for portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Khosravi, Reza & Caporin, Massimiliano, 2023. "Analyzing interconnection among selected commodities in the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    17. Mishra, Aswini Kumar & Ghate, Kshitish, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness in non-ferrous commodity markets: Evidence from India using TVP-VAR and DCC-GARCH approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financialisation; Commodity markets; Co-movement; Correlation; Gerber statistic; Early security prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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