IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v67y2020ics1057521919302200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Three-level network analysis of the North American natural gas price: A multiscale perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Shuyu
  • Huang, Shupei
  • Chi, Yuxi
  • Feng, Sida
  • Li, Yang
  • Sun, Qingru

Abstract

With the US being the largest natural gas producer, the North America formed a mature and leading natural gas market from which emerging markets can learn to develop themselves. It also influences the global market and under various factors, the market presents multiscale characteristics. We explore North American natural gas price, from 1997 to 2018, using wavelet transform and multiscale fluctuation mode network (MFMN) where nodes are a set of fluctuating states extracted from wavelet power and edges are the transmission relationships between the set of states. The multiscale characteristics are analyzed in three levels: macro-network, meso-community and micro-motif. From macroscopic, 131 out of 474 nodes are identified as major contributors of price fluctuation states in the market by weighted out-degree and transmit nodes are identified by betweenness centrality. From mesoscopic, we find that price fluctuation states in the market could be divided into 16 groups and it could be the result of middle- or long-term factors, such as season, weather and policy. From microscopic, 13 directed three-node motifs are detected to present different price fluctuation in continuous short period. And there exist price fluctuation patterns in the market by exploring the community preference for motif containment and motif preference for characters.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Shuyu & Huang, Shupei & Chi, Yuxi & Feng, Sida & Li, Yang & Sun, Qingru, 2020. "Three-level network analysis of the North American natural gas price: A multiscale perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s1057521919302200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521919302200
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2019.101420?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vacha, Lukas & Barunik, Jozef, 2012. "Co-movement of energy commodities revisited: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 241-247.
    2. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2018. "What drives natural gas prices in the United States? – A directed acyclic graph approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 79-88.
    3. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    4. Shupei Huang & Haizhong An & Xiangyun Gao & Meihui Jiang, 2016. "The Multiscale Fluctuations of the Correlation between Oil Price and Wind Energy Stock," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Kalashnikov, V.V. & Matis, T.I. & Pérez-Valdés, G.A., 2010. "Time series analysis applied to construct US natural gas price functions for groups of states," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 887-900, July.
    6. Jia, Xiaoliang & An, Haizhong & Sun, Xiaoqi & Huang, Xuan & Gao, Xiangyun, 2016. "Finding the multipath propagation of multivariable crude oil prices using a wavelet-based network approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 447(C), pages 331-344.
    7. Huang, Xuan & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Hao, Xiaoqing & Liu, Pengpeng, 2015. "Multiresolution transmission of the correlation modes between bivariate time series based on complex network theory," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 493-506.
    8. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2008. "What Drives Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 45-60.
    9. Jia, Xiaoliang & An, Haizhong & Sun, Xiaoqi & Huang, Xuan & Wang, Lijun, 2017. "Evolution of world crude oil market integration and diversification: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1788-1798.
    10. Grané, Aurea & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Wavelet-based detection of outliers in financial time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2580-2593, November.
    11. Struzik, Zbigniew R., 2001. "Wavelet methods in (financial) time-series processing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 296(1), pages 307-319.
    12. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The behaviour mechanism analysis of regional natural gas prices: A multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 266-277.
    13. Norden E. Huang & Man‐Li Wu & Wendong Qu & Steven R. Long & Samuel S. P. Shen, 2003. "Applications of Hilbert–Huang transform to non‐stationary financial time series analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(3), pages 245-268, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jinchao & Wu, Qianqian & Tian, Yu & Fan, Liguo, 2021. "Monthly Henry Hub natural gas spot prices forecasting using variational mode decomposition and deep belief network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Xie, Gang & Jiang, Fuxin & Zhang, Chengyuan, 2023. "A secondary decomposition-ensemble methodology for forecasting natural gas prices using multisource data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Xiuming & Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & He, Huizi, 2019. "The spillover effects between natural gas and crude oil markets: The correlation network analysis based on multi-scale approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 306-324.
    2. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Huang, Xuan & Wang, Yue, 2018. "Do all sectors respond to oil price shocks simultaneously?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 393-402.
    3. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    4. Wu, Kai & Zhu, Jingran & Xu, Mingli & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Can crude oil drive the co-movement in the international stock market? Evidence from partial wavelet coherence analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Cuilin Li & Ya-Juan Du & Qiang Ji & Jiang-bo Geng, 2019. "Multiscale Market Integration and Nonlinear Granger Causality between Natural Gas Futures and Physical Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Goutte, Stéphane & Urom, Christian & Chevallier, Julien, 2019. "Commodities risk premia and regional integration in gas-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 267-276.
    7. Sui, Guo & Li, Huajiao & Feng, Sida & Liu, Xueyong & Jiang, Meihui, 2018. "Correlations of stock price fluctuations under multi-scale and multi-threshold scenarios," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 1501-1512.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mukherjee, Zinnia & Gupta, Rangan & Balcilar, Mehmet, 2019. "A wavelet analysis of the relationship between oil and natural gas prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 118-124.
    9. Saleh Mothana Obadi & Matej Korcek, 2020. "Driving Fundamentals of Natural Gas Price in Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 318-324.
    10. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & An, Haizhong & Guo, Sui & Liu, Xueyong & Wang, Ze, 2021. "Which time-frequency domain dominates spillover in the Chinese energy stock market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Yahya, Muhammad & Oglend, Atle & Dahl, Roy Endré, 2019. "Temporal and spectral dependence between crude oil and agricultural commodities: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 277-296.
    12. Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare & Shen, Yifan, 2019. "Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline and ASEAN gas market integration: Insights from a scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 83-95.
    13. Belhassine, Olfa & Karamti, Chiraz, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and hedging effectiveness between oil and stock markets: Evidence from a wavelet-based and structural breaks analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    14. Qi, Yajie & Li, Huajiao & Liu, Yanxin & Feng, Sida & Li, Yang & Guo, Sui, 2020. "Granger causality transmission mechanism of steel product prices under multiple scales—The industrial chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Wang, Tiantian & Qu, Wan & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Time-varying determinants of China's liquefied natural gas import price: A dynamic model averaging approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    16. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    17. Raza, Naveed & Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Syed & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2016. "Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 290-301.
    18. Yanting Chen & Peter R. Hartley & Yihui Lan, 2023. "Temperature, storage, and natural gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 549-575, April.
    19. Huang, Xiaohong & Huang, Shupei, 2020. "Identifying the comovement of price between China's and international crude oil futures: A time-frequency perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Wen, Shaobo & An, Feng, 2017. "Revisiting driving factors of oil price shocks across time scales," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 617-629.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s1057521919302200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.