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Do ETFs lead the price moves? Evidence from the major US markets

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  • Buckle, Mike
  • Chen, Jing
  • Guo, Qian
  • Tong, Chen

Abstract

In this paper, we study relative price discovery for three major US indices, their futures and exchange traded funds (ETFs) using intra-day price movements from 2003 until 2013. The methodologies employed in our analysis include information share (IS), permanent and transitory decomposition (PT), and weighted price contribution (WPC). The results from PT indicate that for each index ETFs have taken over the role of price discovery from futures contracts; whilst the results from WPC suggest that the spot markets lead price movements, which in turn implies the ETFs may have adjusted prices actively to pre-market information and activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Buckle, Mike & Chen, Jing & Guo, Qian & Tong, Chen, 2018. "Do ETFs lead the price moves? Evidence from the major US markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 91-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:58:y:2018:i:c:p:91-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2017.12.005
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    2. Mathew Mallika & M. M. Sulphey, 2018. "Gold Exchange Traded Fund - Price Discovery and Performance Analysis," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 65(4), pages 477-495, December.
    3. Liwei Jin & Xianghui Yuan & Shihao Wang & Peiran Li & Feng Lian, 2022. "Trades or quotes: Which drives price discovery? Evidence from Chinese index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2235-2247, December.
    4. Moraes, Fernando & Cavalcante-Filho, Elias & De-Losso, Rodrigo, 2021. "Unskilled fund managers: Replicating active fund performance with few ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2022. "Do large-cap exchange-traded funds perform better than their small-cap counterparts in extreme market conditions?☆," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Donald Lien & Ziling Wang & Xiaojian Yu, 2021. "Quantile information share under Markov regime‐switching," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 493-513, April.

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