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A simple non-linear model with fractional integration for financial time series data

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  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper provides several examples of simple non-linear time series models with fractionally integrated disturbances. Both types of models (non-linear and fractional integration) have been widely used in recent years when modeling financial data. We use a testing procedure that permits us to test the order of integration in raw time series in the context of non-linear models. The tests are applied to several financial time series, the results showing that when the non-linear sign structure is taken into account, the order of integration of the series is much higher than one, finding thus conclusive evidence against mean reversion in their behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 838-848

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:838-848

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

Related research

Keywords: Fractional integration Long memory Monte Carlo simulations Stock market;

References

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  12. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
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  16. Bhargava, Alok, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 369-84, July.
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