IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v93y2015ip1p589-598.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's photovoltaic power development under policy incentives: A system dynamics analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Guo, Xiaodan
  • Guo, Xiaopeng

Abstract

Recently China has brought out several incentive policies to break high-cost limitation and stimulate investment in photovoltaic industry. Under this favorable policy environment, PV power is undoubtedly facing enormous development opportunities. Firstly, after analyzing current policy environment and interactions between involved variables, a simulation model of China's PV power development was built using system dynamics methodology considering both economic and technical factors. Secondly, sensitivity analyses are made to analyze the sensitivities of key variables and the effectiveness of relevant policies. The simulated results of generation, investment and capacity during 2012–2032 indicate the future developing trend, and evaluate the rationality and effect of incentive policies. The model allows an understanding of PV power's long-term development pattern under China's latest incentive policies, thus helping to provide reference for policy-making institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Xiaodan & Guo, Xiaopeng, 2015. "China's photovoltaic power development under policy incentives: A system dynamics analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 589-598.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:93:y:2015:i:p1:p:589-598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.09.049
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215012591
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.09.049?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Zhang, Yu & Song, Junghyun & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2011. "Impact of subsidy policies on diffusion of photovoltaic power generation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1958-1964, April.
    3. Jo, J.H. & Loomis, D.G. & Aldeman, M.R., 2013. "Optimum penetration of utility-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems in Illinois," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-26.
    4. Liu, Liwei & Zong, Haijing & Zhao, Erdong & Chen, Chuxiang & Wang, Jianzhou, 2014. "Can China realize its carbon emission reduction goal in 2020: From the perspective of thermal power development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 199-212.
    5. Liu, Da & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Hui & Fan, Leilei, 2014. "Short-term wind speed forecasting using wavelet transform and support vector machines optimized by genetic algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 592-597.
    6. Özer, Betül & Görgün, Erdem & İncecik, Selahattin, 2013. "The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-403.
    7. Wang, Yu & Zhou, Sheng & Huo, Hong, 2014. "Cost and CO2 reductions of solar photovoltaic power generation in China: Perspectives for 2020," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 370-380.
    8. Li, Fujia & Dong, Suocheng & Li, Zehong & Li, Yu & Li, Shantong & Wan, Yongkun, 2012. "The improvement of CO2 emission reduction policies based on system dynamics method in traditional industrial region with large CO2 emission," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 683-695.
    9. Garcia, Humberto E. & Mohanty, Amit & Lin, Wen-Chiao & Cherry, Robert S., 2013. "Dynamic analysis of hybrid energy systems under flexible operation and variable renewable generation – Part II: Dynamic cost analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 17-26.
    10. Zhao, Xiaoli & Ma, Qian & Yang, Rui, 2013. "Factors influencing CO2 emissions in China's power industry: Co-integration analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-98.
    11. Baltas, A.E. & Dervos, A.N., 2012. "Special framework for the spatial planning & the sustainable development of renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 358-363.
    12. Jeon, Chanwoong & Shin, Juneseuk, 2014. "Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: Photovoltaic technology case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 447-457.
    13. Garcia, Humberto E. & Mohanty, Amit & Lin, Wen-Chiao & Cherry, Robert S., 2013. "Dynamic analysis of hybrid energy systems under flexible operation and variable renewable generation – Part I: Dynamic performance analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Chen, Zhisong & Su, Shong-Iee Ivan, 2014. "Photovoltaic supply chain coordination with strategic consumers in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 236-244.
    15. Zhou, Sheng & Zhang, Xiliang, 2010. "Nuclear energy development in China: A study of opportunities and challenges," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4282-4288.
    16. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Lu, Xuedu & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2320-2335, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaodan Guo & Dongxiao Niu & Bowen Xiao, 2016. "Assessment of Air-Pollution Control Policy’s Impact on China’s PV Power: A System Dynamics Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Xiaopeng Guo & Xiaodan Guo & Jiahai Yuan, 2014. "Impact Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Policies on Thermal Coal Supply Chain Enterprises in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Guo, Xiaopeng & Guo, Xiaodan, 2016. "Nuclear power development in China after the restart of new nuclear construction and approval: A system dynamics analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 999-1007.
    4. Yong Jiang & Yalin Lei & Li Li & Jianping Ge, 2016. "Mechanism of Fiscal and Taxation Policies in the Geothermal Industry in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Liu, Dunnan & Liu, Mingguang & Xu, Erfeng & Pang, Bo & Guo, Xiaodan & Xiao, Bowen & Niu, Dongxiao, 2018. "Comprehensive effectiveness assessment of renewable energy generation policy: A partial equilibrium analysis in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 330-341.
    6. Chenjun Sun & Zengqiang Mi & Hui Ren & Fei Wang & Jing Chen & David Watts & Jinling Lu, 2018. "Study on the Incentives Mechanism for the Development of Distributed Photovoltaic Systems from a Long-Term Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Sabo, Mahmoud Lurwan & Mariun, Norman & Hizam, Hashim & Mohd Radzi, Mohd Amran & Zakaria, Azmi, 2017. "Spatial matching of large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation with utility demand in Peninsular Malaysia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 663-688.
    8. Sampath Kumar Venkatachary & Jagdish Prasad & Ravi Samikannu & Annamalai Alagappan & Leo John Baptist & Raymon Antony Raj, 2020. "Macro Economics of Virtual Power Plant for Rural Areas of Botswana," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 196-207.
    9. Kamjoo, Azadeh & Maheri, Alireza & Putrus, Ghanim A., 2014. "Chance constrained programming using non-Gaussian joint distribution function in design of standalone hybrid renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-688.
    10. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    11. Weijun Wang & Weisong Peng & Jiaming Xu & Ran Zhang & Yaxuan Zhao, 2018. "Driving Factor Analysis and Forecasting of CO 2 Emissions from Power Output in China Using Scenario Analysis and CSCWOA-ELM Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Chen, Jun & Garcia, Humberto E., 2016. "Economic optimization of operations for hybrid energy systems under variable markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 11-24.
    13. Chen, Jun & Rabiti, Cristian, 2017. "Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 507-517.
    14. Caballero, F. & Sauma, E. & Yanine, F., 2013. "Business optimal design of a grid-connected hybrid PV (photovoltaic)-wind energy system without energy storage for an Easter Island's block," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 248-261.
    15. Epiney, A. & Rabiti, C. & Talbot, P. & Alfonsi, A., 2020. "Economic analysis of a nuclear hybrid energy system in a stochastic environment including wind turbines in an electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    16. Mingquan Wang & Lingyun Zhang & Xin Su & Yang Lei & Qun Shen & Wei Wei & Maohua Wang, 2019. "Assessing the technology impact for industry carbon density reduction in China based on C3IAM-Tice," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1455-1468, December.
    17. Hamilton, James & Negnevitsky, Michael & Wang, Xiaolin & Lyden, Sarah, 2019. "High penetration renewable generation within Australian isolated and remote power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 684-692.
    18. David Grosspietsch & Marissa Saenger & Bastien Girod, 2019. "Matching decentralized energy production and local consumption: A review of renewable energy systems with conversion and storage technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), July.
    19. Teng, Minmin & Lv, Kunfeng & Han, Chuanfeng & Liu, Pihui, 2023. "Trading behavior strategy of power plants and the grid under renewable portfolio standards in China: A tripartite evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    20. Yang, Lisha & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Carbon dioxide-emission in China׳s power industry: Evidence and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 258-267.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:93:y:2015:i:p1:p:589-598. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.