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Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning

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  • Muñoz, Beatriz
  • García-Verdugo, Javier
  • San-Martín, Enrique

Abstract

Energy risk and security are topical issues in energy analysis and policy. However, the quantitative analysis of energy risk presents significant methodological difficulties, especially when dealing with certain of its more qualitative dimensions. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively estimate the geopolitical risk of energy supply with the help of a multivariate statistical technique, factor analysis. Four partial energy risk factors were computed for 122 countries, which were subsequently aggregated to form the composite GESRI (Geopolitical Energy Supply Risk Index). The results demonstrate that advanced economies present a lower level of geopolitical energy risk, especially countries with energy resources, while less-developed countries register higher levels of risk regardless of their energy production. Although this indicator is computed for countries, it can be aggregated for regions or corridors, and it could also be applied to model and scenario building. The different uses of the GESRI could eventually lead to practical implications in the energy policy field, as well as in the energy planning and energy management areas.

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  • Muñoz, Beatriz & García-Verdugo, Javier & San-Martín, Enrique, 2015. "Quantifying the geopolitical dimension of energy risks: A tool for energy modelling and planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 479-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:479-500
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.01.058
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    2. Paulino Martinez-Fernandez & Fernando deLlano-Paz & Anxo Calvo-Silvosa & Isabel Soares, 2019. "Assessing Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) Potential Using a CAPM-Analogous Multi-Stage Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Rubio-Varas, Mar & Muñoz-Delgado, Beatriz, 2017. "200 years diversifying the energy mix? Diversification paths of the energy baskets of European early comers vs. latecomers," Working Papers in Economic History 2017/01, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    4. Debin Fang & Shanshan Shi & Qian Yu, 2018. "Evaluation of Sustainable Energy Security and an Empirical Analysis of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
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    6. Shihai Wu & Yili Zhang & Jianzhong Yan, 2022. "Comprehensive Assessment of Geopolitical Risk in the Himalayan Region Based on the Grid Scale," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Augutis, Juozas & Krikštolaitis, Ričardas & Martišauskas, Linas & Urbonienė, Sigita & Urbonas, Rolandas & Ušpurienė, Aistė Barbora, 2020. "Analysis of energy security level in the Baltic States based on indicator approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Rubio-Varas, Mar & Muñoz-Delgado, Beatriz, 2019. "Long-term diversification paths and energy transitions in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 158-168.
    9. Paweł Ziemba & Aneta Becker & Jarosław Becker, 2021. "Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-20, September.

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