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Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

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  • Higgins, P.
  • Foley, A.M.
  • Douglas, R.
  • Li, K.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

Suggested Citation

  • Higgins, P. & Foley, A.M. & Douglas, R. & Li, K., 2014. "Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 187-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:76:y:2014:i:c:p:187-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.037
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