IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v33y2008i5p679-688.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of electricity consumption in the Asian gaming and tourism center—Macao SAR, People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Lai, T.M.
  • To, W.M.
  • Lo, W.C.
  • Choy, Y.S.

Abstract

The use of electricity is indispensable to modern life. As Macao Special Administrative Region becomes a gaming and tourism center in Asia, modeling the consumption of electricity is critical to Macao's economic development. The purposes of this paper are to conduct an extensive literature review on modeling of electricity consumption, and to identify key climatic, demographic, economic and/or industrial factors that may affect the electricity consumption of a country/city. It was identified that the five factors, namely temperature, population, the number of tourists, hotel room occupancy and days per month, could be used to characterize Macao's monthly electricity consumption. Three selected approaches including multiple regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet ANN were used to derive mathematical models of the electricity consumption. The accuracy of these models was assessed by using the mean squared error (MSE), the mean squared percentage error (MSPE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The error analysis shows that wavelet ANN has a very promising forecasting capability and can reveal the periodicity of electricity consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Lai, T.M. & To, W.M. & Lo, W.C. & Choy, Y.S., 2008. "Modeling of electricity consumption in the Asian gaming and tourism center—Macao SAR, People's Republic of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 679-688.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:33:y:2008:i:5:p:679-688
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2007.12.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544207002277
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2007.12.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zachariadis, Theodoros & Pashourtidou, Nicoletta, 2007. "An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 183-198, March.
    2. Egelioglu, F. & Mohamad, A.A. & Guven, H., 2001. "Economic variables and electricity consumption in Northern Cyprus," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 355-362.
    3. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2006. "Comparing linear and nonlinear forecasts for Taiwan's electricity consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2129-2141.
    4. Yang, Hao-Yen, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 309-317, June.
    5. Ranjan, Manish & Jain, V.K., 1999. "Modelling of electrical energy consumption in Delhi," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 351-361.
    6. Ferguson, Ross & Wilkinson, William & Hill, Robert, 2000. "Electricity use and economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(13), pages 923-934, November.
    7. Yoo, Seung-Hoon, 2006. "Causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(11), pages 1181-1189, November.
    8. Yoo, S.-H., 2006. "The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3573-3582, December.
    9. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2006. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: a time series experience for 17 African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1106-1114, July.
    10. Yee Yan, Yuk, 1998. "Climate and residential electricity consumption in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-20.
    11. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    12. Fung, W.Y. & Lam, K.S. & Hung, W.T. & Pang, S.W. & Lee, Y.L., 2006. "Impact of urban temperature on energy consumption of Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2623-2637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    2. Chen, B. & Li, J.S. & Zhou, S.L. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q., 2018. "GHG emissions embodied in Macao's internal energy consumption and external trade: Driving forces via decomposition analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4100-4106.
    3. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    4. Shao, Zhen & Gao, Fei & Zhang, Qiang & Yang, Shan-Lin, 2015. "Multivariate statistical and similarity measure based semiparametric modeling of the probability distribution: A novel approach to the case study of mid-long term electricity consumption forecasting i," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 502-518.
    5. Bašta, Milan & Helman, Karel, 2013. "Scale-specific importance of weather variables for explanation of variations of electricity consumption: The case of Prague, Czech Republic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 503-514.
    6. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    7. Özer, Betül & Görgün, Erdem & İncecik, Selahattin, 2013. "The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 395-403.
    8. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    9. Wang, Shuai & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling & Wang, Shouyang, 2011. "A novel seasonal decomposition based least squares support vector regression ensemble learning approach for hydropower consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6542-6554.
    10. To, W.M. & Lai, T.M. & Chung, W.L., 2011. "Fuel life cycle emissions for electricity consumption in the world’s gaming center–Macao SAR, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5162-5168.
    11. Li, J.S. & Chen, G.Q., 2013. "Energy and greenhouse gas emissions review for Macao," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 23-32.
    12. Zhang, Wenbin & Tian, Lixin & Wang, Minggang & Zhen, Zaili & Fang, Guochang, 2016. "The evolution model of electricity market on the stable development in China and its dynamic analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 344-359.
    13. Psiloglou, B.E. & Giannakopoulos, C. & Majithia, S. & Petrakis, M., 2009. "Factors affecting electricity demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A comparative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1855-1863.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2012. "Electricity saving potential of the power generation industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 307-316.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2011. "Estimates of the potential for energy conservation in the Chinese steel industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3680-3689, June.
    16. Li, J.S. & Chen, G.Q. & Wu, X.F. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A. & Ahmad, B., 2014. "Embodied energy assessment for Macao׳s external trade," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 642-653.
    17. Lam, K.H. & Lai, T.M. & Lo, W.C. & To, W.M., 2012. "The application of dynamic modelling techniques to the grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 264-274.
    18. Irsag, Bojan & Pukšec, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2012. "Long term energy demand projection and potential for energy savings of Croatian tourism–catering trade sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 398-405.
    19. Wai-Ming To & Peter Ka Chun Lee & Tsz-Ming Lai, 2017. "Modeling of Monthly Residential and Commercial Electricity Consumption Using Nonlinear Seasonal Models—The Case of Hong Kong," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-16, June.
    20. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Fouilloy, Alexis & Notton, Gilles & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2017. "Forecasting method for global radiation time series without training phase: Comparison with other well-known prediction methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 199-208.
    21. Cinar, Didem & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Daim, Tugrul, 2010. "Development of future energy scenarios with intelligent algorithms: Case of hydro in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1724-1729.
    22. Xie, Yanhua & Weng, Qihao, 2016. "Detecting urban-scale dynamics of electricity consumption at Chinese cities using time-series DMSP-OLS (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program-Operational Linescan System) nighttime light imageries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 177-189.
    23. Li, Shuyi & Cheng, Liang & Liu, Xiaoqiang & Mao, Junya & Wu, Jie & Li, Manchun, 2019. "City type-oriented modeling electric power consumption in China using NPP-VIIRS nighttime stable light data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    24. Lai, T.M. & To, W.M. & Lo, W.C. & Choy, Y.S. & Lam, K.H., 2011. "The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a Gaming and Tourism Center: The case of Macao SAR, the People’s Republic of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1134-1142.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lai, T.M. & To, W.M. & Lo, W.C. & Choy, Y.S. & Lam, K.H., 2011. "The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in a Gaming and Tourism Center: The case of Macao SAR, the People’s Republic of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1134-1142.
    2. Massa, Ricardo & Rosellón, Juan, 2020. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality between electricity production and economic performance in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    3. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    4. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mete Feridun, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth empirical evidence from Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1583-1599, August.
    6. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "A re-examination of the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 3067-3075, August.
    7. To, W.M. & Lai, T.M. & Chung, W.L., 2011. "Fuel life cycle emissions for electricity consumption in the world’s gaming center–Macao SAR, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5162-5168.
    8. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2009. "Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1779-1791.
    9. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    11. Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "The electricity consumption versus economic growth of the Polish economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 500-510.
    12. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Mohammad Haris Siddiqui, 2016. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 200-215, September.
    13. Yoo, Seung-Hoon & Kwak, So-Yoon, 2010. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in seven South American countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 181-188, January.
    14. Herrerias, M.J. & Joyeux, R. & Girardin, E., 2013. "Short- and long-run causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence across regions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1483-1492.
    15. Ma, Rufei & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive volatility spillovers in electricity markets: Time and frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad, 2011. "Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3529-3536, June.
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2011. "A dynamic panel study of economic development and the electricity consumption-growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 770-781, September.
    18. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Growth Nexus for Portugal: Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," MPRA Paper 28393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Tang, Chor Foon & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed, 2013. "Re-investigating the electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1515-1524.
    20. Chirwa, Themba G & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2018. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: New evidence from twelve countries," Working Papers 23508, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:33:y:2008:i:5:p:679-688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.