IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v236y2021ics0360544221016923.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of a Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis to support decision-making within a macro-scale energy model: Case study of the electrification of the road European transport sector

Author

Listed:
  • Lerede, Daniele
  • Pinto, Giuseppe
  • Saccone, Mirko
  • Bustreo, Chiara
  • Capozzoli, Alfonso
  • Savoldi, Laura

Abstract

Energy system models based on the TIMES framework can explore possible energy futures through the construction of a network of technological processes, to satisfy a set of exogenously imposed service demands at the least-cost system configuration. This work presents a methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in finding optimal energy-system configuration in a complex energy environment, characterized by uncertain information. First, the EUROfusion TIMES Model is used to assess the sensitivity of different long-term evolutions of the European energy system, with particular reference to the road transport sector, considering different trends for the prescribed future variations of investment cost and vehicle efficiency. In a second step, the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis is used to critically evaluate the alternative optimal configurations proposed by the model simulations under a set of economic and environmental criteria. The results of the analysis allow the discussion of the influence of such criteria on the different alternative cases, complementing the cost minimization approach. In the case study considered here, high penetrations of electric vehicles in the road fleet are favored by economic, environmental and energy-related priorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Lerede, Daniele & Pinto, Giuseppe & Saccone, Mirko & Bustreo, Chiara & Capozzoli, Alfonso & Savoldi, Laura, 2021. "Application of a Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis to support decision-making within a macro-scale energy model: Case study of the electrification of the road European transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:236:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221016923
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121444
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221016923
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121444?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kowalski, Katharina & Stagl, Sigrid & Madlener, Reinhard & Omann, Ines, 2009. "Sustainable energy futures: Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1063-1074, September.
    2. Ramea, Kalai & Bunch, David S. & Yang, Christopher & Yeh, Sonia & Ogden, Joan M., 2018. "Integration of behavioral effects from vehicle choice models into long-term energy systems optimization models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-676.
    3. Indre Siksnelyte & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Dalia Streimikiene & Deepak Sharma, 2018. "An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in Dealing with Sustainable Energy Development Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto & A. Wahid, Mazlan, 2016. "Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 237-244.
    5. Bosetti, Valentina & Tavoni, Massimo, 2009. "Uncertain R&D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 18-26.
    6. Wang, Jiang-Jiang & Jing, You-Yin & Zhang, Chun-Fa & Zhao, Jun-Hong, 2009. "Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2263-2278, December.
    7. Lahdelma, Risto & Hokkanen, Joonas & Salminen, Pekka, 1998. "SMAA - Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 137-143, April.
    8. Kanudia, Amit & Loulou, Richard, 1998. "Robust responses to climate change via stochastic MARKAL: The case of Quebec," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 15-30, April.
    9. Daniele Lerede & Chiara Bustreo & Francesco Gracceva & Yolanda Lechón & Laura Savoldi, 2020. "Analysis of the Effects of Electrification of the Road Transport Sector on the Possible Penetration of Nuclear Fusion in the Long-Term European Energy Mix," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-25, July.
    10. Hunter, Kevin & Sreepathi, Sarat & DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2013. "Modeling for insight using Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (Temoa)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 339-349.
    11. Giuseppe Pinto & Elnaz Abdollahi & Alfonso Capozzoli & Laura Savoldi & Risto Lahdelma, 2019. "Optimization and Multicriteria Evaluation of Carbon-neutral Technologies for District Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, April.
    12. Martín-Gamboa, Mario & Iribarren, Diego & García-Gusano, Diego & Dufour, Javier, 2019. "Enhanced prioritisation of prospective scenarios for power generation in Spain: How and which one?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 369-379.
    13. Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2001. "SMAA-2: Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Group Decision Making," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(3), pages 444-454, June.
    14. Lahdelma, Risto & Makkonen, Simo & Salminen, Pekka, 2006. "Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(3), pages 957-970, May.
    15. Berntsen, Philip B. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 886-898.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kouridis, Ch & Vlachokostas, Ch, 2022. "Towards decarbonizing road transport: Environmental and social benefit of vehicle fleet electrification in urban areas of Greece," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Fernando Martins & Pedro Moura & Aníbal T. de Almeida, 2022. "The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of the Energy Sector in Portugal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-35, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Silvia Angilella & Maria Rosaria Pappalardo, 2022. "Performance assessment of energy companies employing Hierarchy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 299-370, March.
    2. Valentin Bertsch & Wolf Fichtner, 2016. "A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation and transmission planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 245(1), pages 177-207, October.
    3. R. Pelissari & M. C. Oliveira & S. Ben Amor & A. Kandakoglu & A. L. Helleno, 2020. "SMAA methods and their applications: a literature review and future research directions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(2), pages 433-493, October.
    4. Wulf, David & Bertsch, Valentin, 2016. "A natural language generation approach to support understanding and traceability of multi-dimensional preferential sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria decision making," MPRA Paper 75025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Giuseppe Pinto & Elnaz Abdollahi & Alfonso Capozzoli & Laura Savoldi & Risto Lahdelma, 2019. "Optimization and Multicriteria Evaluation of Carbon-neutral Technologies for District Heating," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Corrente, Salvatore & Figueira, José Rui & Greco, Salvatore, 2014. "The SMAA-PROMETHEE method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 514-522.
    7. García Cáceres, Rafael Guillermo & Aráoz Durand, Julián Arturo & Gómez, Fernando Palacios, 2009. "Integral analysis method - IAM," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(3), pages 891-903, February.
    8. Rivero-Iglesias, Jose M. & Puente, Javier & Fernandez, Isabel & León, Omar, 2023. "Integrated model for the assessment of power generation alternatives through analytic hierarchy process and a fuzzy inference system. Case study of Spain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 563-581.
    9. Lahdelma, Risto & Makkonen, Simo & Salminen, Pekka, 2009. "Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 79-92, February.
    10. Tervonen, Tommi & Hakonen, Henri & Lahdelma, Risto, 2008. "Elevator planning with stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 352-362, June.
    11. Abdellah Menou & Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2022. "Multicriteria Decision Aiding for Planning Renewable Power Production at Moroccan Airports," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-20, July.
    12. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    13. Wang, Haichao & Duanmu, Lin & Lahdelma, Risto & Li, Xiangli, 2017. "Developing a multicriteria decision support framework for CHP based combined district heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 345-368.
    14. García-Cáceres, Rafael Guillermo, 2020. "Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis – Matching (SMAA-M)," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
    15. Menou, Abdellah & Benallou, Abdelhanine & Lahdelma, Risto & Salminen, Pekka, 2010. "Decision support for centralizing cargo at a Moroccan airport hub using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(3), pages 621-629, August.
    16. Song, Lianlian & Fu, Yelin & Zhou, Peng & Lai, Kin Keung, 2017. "Measuring national energy performance via Energy Trilemma Index: A Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 313-319.
    17. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto & A. Wahid, Mazlan, 2016. "Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 237-244.
    18. Jiang, Yanping & Liang, Xia & Liang, Haiming & Yang, Ningman, 2018. "Multiple criteria decision making with interval stochastic variables: A method based on interval stochastic dominance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 632-643.
    19. Ishizaka, Alessio & Siraj, Sajid & Nemery, Philippe, 2016. "Which energy mix for the UK (United Kingdom)? An evolutive descriptive mapping with the integrated GAIA (graphical analysis for interactive aid)–AHP (analytic hierarchy process) visualization tool," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 602-611.
    20. Kadziński, MiŁosz & Greco, Salvatore & SŁowiński, Roman, 2012. "Extreme ranking analysis in robust ordinal regression," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 488-501.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:236:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221016923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.