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Forecasting annual electricity consumption in China by employing a conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction

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  • Xie, Wanli
  • Wu, Wen-Ze
  • Liu, Chong
  • Zhao, Jingjie

Abstract

Electric power makes a significant contribution to economic development. Predicting annual electricity consumption is becoming increasingly crucial for electric power utility planning and economic development. To address this problem, a novel conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction is presented to predict annual electricity consumption in China. Firstly, the computational formulas for the novel model are deduced by grey modelling method and the effectiveness of the novel model is proved by matrix perturbation theory. Secondly, the optimal parameters are determined by quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm. Thirdly, two empirical examples are taken to validate the prediction accuracy of the novel model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to predict electricity consumption of Beijing, Fujian and Shandong. The results show that the novel model is superior to other six competitive models. Besides, electricity consumption of these regions in next five years are predicted, which can well serve a benchmark research and provide a relatively reliable reference for economic and electric sectors.

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  • Xie, Wanli & Wu, Wen-Ze & Liu, Chong & Zhao, Jingjie, 2020. "Forecasting annual electricity consumption in China by employing a conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220307891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117682
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    3. Wu, Wen-Ze & Pang, Haodan & Zheng, Chengli & Xie, Wanli & Liu, Chong, 2021. "Predictive analysis of quarterly electricity consumption via a novel seasonal fractional nonhomogeneous discrete grey model: A case of Hubei in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
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    5. Weijie Zhou & Huihui Tao & Jiaxin Chang & Huimin Jiang & Li Chen, 2023. "Forecasting Chinese Electricity Consumption Based on Grey Seasonal Model with New Information Priority," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    6. Changrui Deng & Xiaoyuan Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Yukun Bao, 2021. "Equipping Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Models with Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-14, July.
    7. Şahin, Utkucan & Ballı, Serkan & Chen, Yan, 2021. "Forecasting seasonal electricity generation in European countries under Covid-19-induced lockdown using fractional grey prediction models and machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    8. Zheng, Kedi & Chen, Huiyao & Wang, Yi & Chen, Qixin, 2022. "Data-driven financial transmission right scenario generation and speculation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    9. Liu, Yitong & Xue, Dingyu & Yang, Yang, 2021. "Two types of conformable fractional grey interval models and their applications in regional electricity consumption prediction," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    10. Qu, Zhijian & Xu, Juan & Wang, Zixiao & Chi, Rui & Liu, Hanxin, 2021. "Prediction of electricity generation from a combined cycle power plant based on a stacking ensemble and its hyperparameter optimization with a grid-search method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Zhou, Wenhao & Li, Hailin & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2022. "A novel seasonal fractional grey model for predicting electricity demand: A case study of Zhejiang in China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 128-147.
    12. Zhou, Chenyu & Shen, Yun & Wu, Haixin & Wang, Jianhong, 2022. "Using fractional discrete Verhulst model to forecast Fujian's electricity consumption in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    13. Xiong, Pingping & Li, Kailing & Shu, Hui & Wang, Junjie, 2021. "Forecast of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region using a fractional-order incomplete gamma grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2021. "Point and interval forecasting of electricity supply via pruned ensembles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    15. He, Jing & Mao, Shuhua & Kang, Yuxiao, 2023. "Augmented fractional accumulation grey model and its application: Class ratio and restore error perspectives," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 220-247.
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    17. Li, Jinghua & Luo, Yichen & Wei, Shanyang, 2022. "Long-term electricity consumption forecasting method based on system dynamics under the carbon-neutral target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).

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