IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v195y2020ics0360544220301511.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling power loss during blackouts in China using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Haoling
  • Zhao, Tongtiegang

Abstract

Power loss during blackouts shows an increasing complexity with the increase in the size of power grids. Traditional statistical methods based on the assumption of stationarity can lead to inappropriate assessments of blackouts. This study builds on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution by introducing time as a covariate to account for possible non-stationarities. The location, scale, and shape parameters of GEV are modeled step-by-step through the one-factor-at-a-time experiment. The results indicate that the GEV model of the annual maximum power loss in China exhibits a significant change of the scale parameter. By contrast, changes in location and shape parameters are not significant. Overall, the power loss during blackouts is tested to change with time, which reflects the sustained increase in the variability of power loss due to the growing size of power grids. The mean tends to be stable and the distribution type remains the same, which can be related to technological advances that improve the reliability of power grids. The non-stationary GEV model with time as a covariate can effectively analyze power loss during blackouts in China. It has the potential to be extended to describe non-stationary high-dimensional characteristics of power grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Haoling & Zhao, Tongtiegang, 2020. "Modeling power loss during blackouts in China using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220301511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220301511
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117044?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eto, Joseph H. & LaCommare, Kristina H. & Larsen, Peter & Todd, Annika & Fisher, Emily, 2012. "Distribution-level electricity reliability: Temporal trends using statistical analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 243-252.
    2. Bo, Zeng & Shaojie, Ouyang & Jianhua, Zhang & Hui, Shi & Geng, Wu & Ming, Zeng, 2015. "An analysis of previous blackouts in the world: Lessons for China׳s power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1151-1163.
    3. Talukdar, Sarosh N. & Apt, Jay & Ilic, Marija & Lave, Lester B. & Morgan, M. Granger, 2003. "Cascading Failures: Survival versus Prevention," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(9), pages 25-31, November.
    4. Fawad, Muhammad & Yan, Ting & Chen, Lu & Huang, Kangdi & Singh, Vijay P., 2019. "Multiparameter probability distributions for at-site frequency analysis of annual maximum wind speed with L-Moments for parameter estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 724-737.
    5. Mathews, John A. & Tan, Hao, 2013. "The transformation of the electric power sector in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 170-180.
    6. Linyin Cheng & Amir AghaKouchak & Eric Gilleland & Richard Katz, 2014. "Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 353-369, November.
    7. Hines, Paul & Apt, Jay & Talukdar, Sarosh, 2009. "Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5249-5259, December.
    8. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    9. Larsen, Peter H. & Boehlert, Brent & Eto, Joseph & Hamachi-LaCommare, Kristina & Martinich, Jeremy & Rennels, Lisa, 2018. "Projecting future costs to U.S. electric utility customers from power interruptions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1256-1277.
    10. Zhou, Xiaoxin & Yi, Jun & Song, Ruihua & Yang, Xiaoyu & Li, Yan & Tang, Haiyan, 2010. "An overview of power transmission systems in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4302-4312.
    11. Larsen, Peter H. & LaCommare, Kristina H. & Eto, Joseph H. & Sweeney, James L., 2016. "Recent trends in power system reliability and implications for evaluating future investments in resiliency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 29-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Farshchian, Ghazaleh & Darestani, Soroush Avakh & Hamidi, Naser, 2021. "Developing a decision-making dashboard for power losses attributes of Iran’s electricity distribution network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Larsen, Peter H. & Lawson, Megan & LaCommare, Kristina H. & Eto, Joseph H., 2020. "Severe weather, utility spending, and the long-term reliability of the U.S. power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Harker Steele, Amanda J. & Burnett, J. Wesley & Bergstrom, John C., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy resources on power system reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    3. Bo, Zeng & Shaojie, Ouyang & Jianhua, Zhang & Hui, Shi & Geng, Wu & Ming, Zeng, 2015. "An analysis of previous blackouts in the world: Lessons for China׳s power industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1151-1163.
    4. Dmitry Borisoglebsky & Liz Varga, 2019. "A Resilience Toolbox and Research Design for Black Sky Hazards to Power Grids," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-15, June.
    5. Larsen, Peter H. & Boehlert, Brent & Eto, Joseph & Hamachi-LaCommare, Kristina & Martinich, Jeremy & Rennels, Lisa, 2018. "Projecting future costs to U.S. electric utility customers from power interruptions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1256-1277.
    6. Elliott, Robert J.R. & Sun, Puyang & Xu, Qiqin, 2015. "Energy distribution and economic growth: An empirical test for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 24-31.
    7. Dunn, Laurel N. & Sohn, Michael D. & LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi & Eto, Joseph H., 2019. "Exploratory analysis of high-resolution power interruption data reveals spatial and temporal heterogeneity in electric grid reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 206-214.
    8. Nikolai Voropai, 2020. "Electric Power System Transformations: A Review of Main Prospects and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-16, October.
    9. Ming, Zeng & Lilin, Peng & Qiannan, Fan & Yingjie, Zhang, 2016. "Trans-regional electricity transmission in China: Status, issues and strategies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 572-583.
    10. Moroni, Stefano & Antoniucci, Valentina & Bisello, Adriano, 2016. "Energy sprawl, land taking and distributed generation: towards a multi-layered density," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 266-273.
    11. Johansson, Bengt, 2013. "A broadened typology on energy and security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 199-205.
    12. Yanshan Yu & Jin Yang & Bin Chen, 2012. "The Smart Grids in China—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-18, May.
    13. Vivian Do & Heather McBrien & Nina M. Flores & Alexander J. Northrop & Jeffrey Schlegelmilch & Mathew V. Kiang & Joan A. Casey, 2023. "Spatiotemporal distribution of power outages with climate events and social vulnerability in the USA," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Künneke, Rolf & Groenewegen, John & Ménard, Claude, 2010. "Aligning modes of organization with technology: Critical transactions in the reform of infrastructures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 494-505, September.
    15. Meier, Alan & Ueno, Tsuyoshi & Pritoni, Marco, 2019. "Using data from connected thermostats to track large power outages in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    16. Zhao, Changhong & Zhang, Weirong & Wang, Yang & Liu, Qilin & Guo, Jingsheng & Xiong, Minpeng & Yuan, Jiahai, 2017. "The economics of coal power generation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Hongxiang Yan & Hamid Moradkhani, 2016. "Toward more robust extreme flood prediction by Bayesian hierarchical and multimodeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 203-225, March.
    18. Ahmadi, Somayeh & Saboohi, Yadollah & Vakili, Ali, 2021. "Frameworks, quantitative indicators, characters, and modeling approaches to analysis of energy system resilience: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Anuta, Oghenetejiri Harold & Taylor, Phil & Jones, Darren & McEntee, Tony & Wade, Neal, 2014. "An international review of the implications of regulatory and electricity market structures on the emergence of grid scale electricity storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 489-508.
    20. Shield, Stephen A. & Quiring, Steven M. & Pino, Jordan V. & Buckstaff, Ken, 2021. "Major impacts of weather events on the electrical power delivery system in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220301511. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.