IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v96y2016icp491-503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incidence and impact: The regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform

Author

Listed:
  • Rentschler, Jun

Abstract

Since fossil fuel subsidy reforms can induce significant distributional shifts and price shocks, effective compensation and social protection programs are crucial. Based on the statistical simulation model by Araar and Verme (2012), this study estimates the regional variability of direct welfare effects of removing fuel subsidies in Nigeria. Uncompensated subsidy removal is estimated to increase the national poverty rate by 3–4% on average. However, uniform cash compensation that appears effective at the national average, is found to fail to mitigate price shocks in 16 of 37 states – thus putting livelihoods (and public support for reforms) at risk. States that are estimated to incur the largest welfare shocks, coincide with hotspots of civil unrest following Nigeria's 2012 subsidy reform attempt. The study illustrates how regionally disaggregated compensation can be revenue neutral, and maintain or reduce pre-reform poverty rates in all states. Overall, it highlights the importance of understanding differences in vulnerability, and designing tailored social protection schemes which ensure public support for subsidy reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Rentschler, Jun, 2016. "Incidence and impact: The regional variation of poverty effects due to fossil fuel subsidy reform," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 491-503.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:491-503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516303081
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Araar, Abdelkrim & Verme, Paolo, 2012. "Reforming subsidies : a tool-kit for policy simulations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6148, The World Bank.
    2. Arze del Granado, Francisco Javier & Coady, David & Gillingham, Robert, 2012. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2234-2248.
    3. World Bank, 2015. "World Development Indicators 2015," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21634, December.
    4. Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi & Anne Olivier & Chris Trimble, 2013. "Balancing Act : Cutting Energy Subsidies While Protecting Affordability," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12296, December.
    5. Olusegun A. Omisakin & Oluwatosin A. Adeniyi & Abimbola M. Oyinlola, 2012. "Structural Breaks, Parameter Stability and Energy Demand Modeling in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(2), pages 129-144, August.
    6. Abdelkrim Araar & Nada Choueiri & Paolo Verme, 2017. "The Quest for Subsidy Reforms in Libya," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Paolo Verme & Abdlekrim Araar (ed.), The Quest for Subsidy Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa Region, chapter 0, pages 119-156, Springer.
    7. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma, 2012. "Fossil fuel subsidy removal and inadequate public power supply: Implications for businesses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-5.
    8. Angus Deaton, 2003. "Household Surveys, Consumption, and the Measurement of Poverty," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 135-159.
    9. Soile, Ismail & Mu, Xiaoyi, 2015. "Who benefit most from fuel subsidies? Evidence from Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 314-324.
    10. Siddig, Khalid & Aguiar, Angel & Grethe, Harald & Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie, 2014. "Impacts of removing fuel import subsidies in Nigeria on poverty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 165-178.
    11. Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero & David Corvino, 2016. "Unintended Consequences: Spillovers from Nigeria’s Fuel Pricing Policies to Its Neighbor," IMF Working Papers 2016/017, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Standing, André, 2014. "Ghana׳s extractive industries and community benefit sharing: The case for cash transfers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 74-82.
    13. Segal, Paul, 2011. "Resource Rents, Redistribution, and Halving Global Poverty: The Resource Dividend," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 475-489, April.
    14. Indermit S. Gill & Ivailo Izvorski & Willem van Eeghen & Donato De Rosa, 2014. "Diversified Development : Making the Most of Natural Resources in Eurasia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 17193, December.
    15. Iwayemi, Akin & Adenikinju, Adeola & Babatunde, M. Adetunji, 2010. "Estimating petroleum products demand elasticities in Nigeria: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 73-85, January.
    16. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2015. "How price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel-subsidizing economies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-124.
    17. Todd Moss & Lauren Young, 2009. "Saving Ghana from Its Oil: The Case for Direct Cash Distribution," Working Papers 186, Center for Global Development.
    18. Vagliasindi, Maria, 2012. "Implementing energy subsidy reforms : an overview of the key issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6122, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jun Rentschler & Morgan Bazilian, 2017. "Policy Monitor—Principles for Designing Effective Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 138-155.
    2. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin & Bazilian, Morgan, 2017. "Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and their impacts on firms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 617-623.
    3. Jun E Rentschler & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2017. "Illicit dealings: Fossil fuel subsidy reforms and the role of tax evasion and smuggling," GRIPS Discussion Papers 17-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    4. Cecile Couharde & Sara Mouhoud, 2020. "Fossil Fuel Subsidies, Income Inequality, And Poverty: Evidence From Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(5), pages 981-1006, December.
    5. Bah, Muhammad Maladoh & Saari, M. Yusof, 2020. "Quantifying the impacts of energy price reform on living expenses in Saudi Arabia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Aiman Albatayneh & Adel Juaidi & Francisco Manzano-Agugliaro, 2023. "The Negative Impact of Electrical Energy Subsidies on the Energy Consumption—Case Study from Jordan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Acharya, Rajesh H. & Sadath, Anver C., 2017. "Implications of energy subsidy reform in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 453-462.
    8. Henseler, Martin & Maisonnave, Helene, 2018. "Low world oil prices: A chance to reform fuel subsidies and promote public transport? A case study for South Africa," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 45-62.
    9. Boudekhdekh, Karim, 2022. "A comparative analysis of energy subsidy in the MENA region," MPRA Paper 115275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Scobie, Michelle, 2017. "Fossil fuel reform in developing states: The case of Trinidad and Tobago, a petroleum producing small Island developing State," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 265-273.
    11. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Morovati, Mohammad & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2022. "Dynamics of fuel demand elasticity: Evidence from Iranian subsidy reforms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Rentschler, Jun & Kornejew, Martin, 2017. "Energy price variation and competitiveness: Firm level evidence from Indonesia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 242-254.
    13. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Hosoe,Nobuhiro, 2022. "Illicit Schemes : Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and the Role of Tax Evasion and Smuggling," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9907, The World Bank.
    14. Schwerhoff, Gregor & Nguyen, Thang Dao & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Grimalda, Gianluca & Jakob, Michael & Klenert, David & Siegmeier, Jan, 2017. "Policy options for a socially balanced climate policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 11, pages 1-11.
    15. McCulloch, Neil & Natalini, Davide & Hossain, Naomi & Justino, Patricia, 2022. "An exploration of the association between fuel subsidies and fuel riots," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Tancrède Voituriez, 2020. "The quest for green welfare state in developing countries," Working Papers hal-02876972, HAL.
    17. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    18. Johannes Linn, 2016. "Creating a Competitive and Innovative Manufacturing and Service Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 8(2), pages 126-167, May.
    19. Lucas W. Davis, 2017. "The Environmental Cost of Global Fuel Subsidies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    20. Muhammad Atta-ul-Islam Abrar & Muhsin Ali & Uzma Bashir & Karim Khan, 2019. "Energy Pricing Policies and Consumers’ Welfare: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 1-28, Jan-June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:491-503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.