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Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks

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  • Wakiyama, Takako
  • Zusman, Eric
  • Monogan, James E.

Abstract

In the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear crisis, Japan began contemplating energy policy reforms that drew inspiration from low-carbon research. This article focuses on a question central to advancing low-carbon research in Japan and elsewhere: namely, how does an exogenous shock affect the onset, magnitude, and permanence of changes in electricity consumption? The article employs intervention analysis with an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to answer this question. The data analysis reveals that post-Fukushima electricity use underwent a sudden, significant, and sustained reduction across Japan. The shock not only affected the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) coverage area but the more distant Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) coverage area. Large electricity users responded with an immediate and significant reduction in electricity consumption that rebounded to below pre-crisis levels; households responded more gradually with no rebound. Two of the more interesting results from the data analysis – the persistence in reductions in the more distant KEPCO coverage area and the rebound among large users – are then explained with a review of survey data and policy trends. Overall the quantitative and qualitative evidence suggests that an exogenous shock may give rise to a reduction in electricity consumption but cannot sustain a low-carbon transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric & Monogan, James E., 2014. "Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 654-666.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:654-666
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.06.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Manuel, 2015. "Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 520-528.
    2. Wakiyama, Takako & Kuramochi, Takeshi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Tahseen, Samiha & Karney, Bryan W., 2017. "Reviewing and critiquing published approaches to the sustainability assessment of hydropower," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-234.
    4. Zolfagharian, Mohammadreza & Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob & Romme, A. Georges L., 2019. "Studying transitions: Past, present, and future," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.

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