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Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

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  • Nakajima, Tadahiro
  • Hamori, Shigeyuki

Abstract

We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables.

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  • Nakajima, Tadahiro & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2013. "Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 869-877.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:869-877
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.033
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    3. Melanie Houllier & Lilian M. De Menezes & Michael Tamvakis, 2014. "Time Varying Long Run Dynamics And Convergence In The Uk Energy Market," EcoMod2014 6970, EcoMod.
    4. Tadahiro Nakajima & Yuki Toyoshima, 2020. "Examination of the Spillover Effects among Natural Gas and Wholesale Electricity Markets Using Their Futures with Different Maturities and Spot Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-14, March.
    5. Xia, Tongshui & Ji, Qiang & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2020. "Nonlinear dependence and information spillover between electricity and fuel source markets: New evidence from a multi-scale analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
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    9. Uribe, Jorge M. & Guillen, Montserrat & Mosquera-López, Stephania, 2018. "Uncovering the nonlinear predictive causality between natural gas and electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 904-916.
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    14. Bouri, Elie & Chen, Qian & Lien, Donald & Lv, Xin, 2017. "Causality between oil prices and the stock market in China: The relevance of the reformed oil product pricing mechanism," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 34-48.
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