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Decarbonising domestic heating: What is the peak GB demand?

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  • Watson, S.D.
  • Lomas, K.J.
  • Buswell, R.A.

Abstract

Around 80% of domestic heat demand in Great Britain (GB) is supplied by natural gas, but continuing to heat dwellings in this way is unlikely to be compatible with national emission reduction targets. Electrical heating using heat pumps is expected to play a significant role in future space heating and hot water provision. The assessment of future heating technologies requires knowledge of the current demand for heat at short time intervals in order to evaluate peak demands and possible storage requirements. Existing half-hourly national heat demand estimates are built on data from small samples of dwellings. This paper provides estimates of GB domestic heat demand under mild, normal and cold weather conditions based on data from over 6000 dwellings collected between May 2009 and July 2010 that participated in the GB smart meter trial. The calculated peak domestic heat demand of 170 GW is around 40% lower than previously calculated suggesting that the difficulties surrounding the electrification of heat are far less profound than previously assumed. These results can be used in the development of future energy pathways and scenarios.

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  • Watson, S.D. & Lomas, K.J. & Buswell, R.A., 2019. "Decarbonising domestic heating: What is the peak GB demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 533-544.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:126:y:2019:i:c:p:533-544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.001
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    5. Stephen Watson & George Bennett, 2022. "Modelling Case Study of Compact Combination Hybrids as Low Disruption Decarbonised Heat," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-15, September.
    6. Salman Siddiqui & Mark Barrett & John Macadam, 2021. "A High Resolution Spatiotemporal Urban Heat Load Model for GB," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Canet, Alexandre & Qadrdan, Meysam & Jenkins, Nick, 2021. "Heat demand mapping and assessment of heat supply options for local areas – The case study of Neath Port Talbot," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Thomaßen, Georg & Kavvadias, Konstantinos & Jiménez Navarro, Juan Pablo, 2021. "The decarbonisation of the EU heating sector through electrification: A parametric analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    9. Fajardy, M. & Reiner, D M., 2020. "An overview of the electrification of residential and commercial heating and cooling and prospects for decarbonisation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 20120, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Lizana, Jesus & Halloran, Claire E. & Wheeler, Scot & Amghar, Nabil & Renaldi, Renaldi & Killendahl, Markus & Perez-Maqueda, Luis A. & McCulloch, Malcolm & Chacartegui, Ricardo, 2023. "A national data-based energy modelling to identify optimal heat storage capacity to support heating electrification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    11. Edmunds, Calum & Galloway, Stuart & Dixon, James & Bukhsh, Waqquas & Elders, Ian, 2021. "Hosting capacity assessment of heat pumps and optimised electric vehicle charging on low voltage networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    12. Verástegui, Felipe & Lorca, Álvaro & Negrete-Pincetic, Matias & Olivares, Daniel, 2020. "Firewood heat electrification impacts in the Chilean power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Anti Kur & Jo Darkwa & John Calautit & Rabah Boukhanouf & Mark Worall, 2023. "Solid–Gas Thermochemical Energy Storage Materials and Reactors for Low to High-Temperature Applications: A Concise Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-35, January.
    14. Lesley Thomson & David Jenkins, 2023. "The Use of Real Energy Consumption Data in Characterising Residential Energy Demand with an Inventory of UK Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-29, August.
    15. Deakin, Matthew & Bloomfield, Hannah & Greenwood, David & Sheehy, Sarah & Walker, Sara & Taylor, Phil C., 2021. "Impacts of heat decarbonization on system adequacy considering increased meteorological sensitivity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    16. Quarton, Christopher J. & Samsatli, Sheila, 2020. "Should we inject hydrogen into gas grids? Practicalities and whole-system value chain optimisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    17. Sourav Khanna & Victor Becerra & Adib Allahham & Damian Giaouris & Jamie M. Foster & Keiron Roberts & David Hutchinson & Jim Fawcett, 2020. "Demand Response Model Development for Smart Households Using Time of Use Tariffs and Optimal Control—The Isle of Wight Energy Autonomous Community Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, January.
    18. Eggimann, Sven & Usher, Will & Eyre, Nick & Hall, Jim W., 2020. "How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    19. Ehsan, Ali & Preece, Robin, 2022. "Quantifying the impacts of heat decarbonisation pathways on the future electricity and gas demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).

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