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Wind power feasibility analysis under uncertainty in the Brazilian electricity market

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  • Aquila, Giancarlo
  • Rotela Junior, Paulo
  • de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson
  • de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo

Abstract

Investors must be able to plan and analyze their investments in order to optimize decisions and turn them into profits associated with a particular project. Since electricity producers in the Brazilian electric power system are exposed to a short-term market, the goal of this paper is to propose a framework for investment analysis capable of encompassing different uncertainties and possibilities for wind power generators in a regulated market, characterized by auctions. In order to reach the proposed objective we employ a simulation technique which allows modeling cash flows considering uncertainties in variables related to project financial premises, electricity generation and producer exposure to the short-term market. For such goal, this study presents a new approach for investment analysis that allows the identification of the main uncertainty parameters and risks associated to this class of projects in the Brazilian electricity market. We also employ the Value at Risk technique to perform a risk management analysis in such context.

Suggested Citation

  • Aquila, Giancarlo & Rotela Junior, Paulo & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo, 2017. "Wind power feasibility analysis under uncertainty in the Brazilian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 127-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:127-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.027
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    4. de Oliveira, Lucas Guedes & Aquila, Giancarlo & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo & de Paiva, Anderson Paulo & de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson & Camatta, Ulisses Pessin, 2020. "Evaluating economic feasibility and maximization of social welfare of photovoltaic projects developed for the Brazilian northeastern coast: An attribute agreement analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Paulo Rotela Junior & Eugenio Fischetti & Victor G. Araújo & Rogério S. Peruchi & Giancarlo Aquila & Luiz Célio S. Rocha & Liviam S. Lacerda, 2019. "Wind Power Economic Feasibility under Uncertainty and the Application of ANN in Sensitivity Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-10, June.
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    7. Stetter, Chris & Piel, Jan-Hendrik & Hamann, Julian F.H. & Breitner, Michael H., 2020. "Competitive and risk-adequate auction bids for onshore wind projects in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Zaroni, Hebert & Maciel, Letícia B. & Carvalho, Diego B. & Pamplona, Edson de O., 2019. "Monte Carlo Simulation approach for economic risk analysis of an emergency energy generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 498-508.
    9. Aquila, Giancarlo & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro & Junior, Paulo Rotella & Souza Rocha, Luiz Celio & de Oliveira Pamplona, Edson, 2021. "Perspectives under uncertainties and risk in wind farms investments based on Omega-LCOE approach: An analysis in São Paulo state, Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. de Doile, Gabriel Nasser Doyle & Rotella Junior, Paulo & Rocha, Luiz Célio Souza & Janda, Karel & Aquila, Giancarlo & Peruchi, Rogério Santana & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo, 2022. "Feasibility of hybrid wind and photovoltaic distributed generation and battery energy storage systems under techno-economic regulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1310-1323.
    11. Aquila, Giancarlo & Souza Rocha, Luiz Célio & Rotela Junior, Paulo & Saab Junior, Joseph Youssif & de Sá Brasil Lima, João & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo, 2020. "Economic planning of wind farms from a NBI-RSM-DEA multiobjective programming," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 628-641.
    12. Kumar, Indraneel & Tyner, Wallace E. & Labi, Samuel & Sinha, Kumares C., 2021. "“The Answer My Friend is Blowin’ in the Wind”: A stochastic assessment of wind farms financial feasibility and economic efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
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    14. Rocha, Luiz Célio Souza & Aquila, Giancarlo & Rotela Junior, Paulo & Paiva, Anderson Paulo de & Pamplona, Edson de Oliveira & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo, 2018. "A stochastic economic viability analysis of residential wind power generation in Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 412-419.
    15. Gabriel Nasser Doyle de Doile & Paulo Rotella Junior & Priscila França Gonzaga Carneiro & Rogério Santana Peruchi & Luiz Célio Souza Rocha & Karel Janda & Giancarlo Aquila, 2021. "Economic Feasibility of Photovoltaic Micro-Installations Connected to the Brazilian Distribution Grid in Light of Proposed Changes to Regulations," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
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    17. Mohammad Nure Alam, 2021. "Accessing the Effect of Renewables on the Wholesale Power Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 341-360.
    18. Vanderson Aparecido Delapedra-Silva & Paula Ferreira & Jorge Cunha & Herbert Kimura, 2021. "Economic Evaluation of Wind Power Projects in a Mix of Free and Regulated Market Environments in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-18, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wind power; Stochastic power generation; Electricity markets; NPV; Renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration

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