Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy

This paper assesses the effects of market-based mechanisms and carbon emission restrictions on the Brazilian energy system by comparing the results of six different energy-economic or integrated assessment models under different scenarios for carbon taxes and abatement targets up to 2050. Results show an increase over time in emissions in the baseline scenarios due, largely, to higher penetration of natural gas and coal. Climate policy scenarios, however, indicate that such a pathway can be avoided. While taxes up to 32US$/tCO2e do not significantly reduce emissions, higher taxes (from 50US$/tCO2e in 2020 to 162US$/tCO2e in 2050) induce average emission reductions around 60% when compared to the baseline. Emission constraint scenarios yield even lower reductions in most models. Emission reductions are mostly due to lower energy consumption, increased penetration of renewable energy (especially biomass and wind) and of carbon capture and storage technologies for fossil and/or biomass fuels. This paper also provides a discussion of specific issues related to mitigation alternatives in Brazil. The range of mitigation options resulting from the model runs generally falls within the limits found for specific energy sources in the country, although infrastructure investments and technology improvements are needed for the projected mitigation scenarios to achieve actual feasibility.