IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v108y2022ics0140988322000792.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy transition in the UKCS – Modelling the effects of carbon emission charges on upstream petroleum operations

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul-Salam, Yakubu
  • Kemp, Alex
  • Phimister, Euan

Abstract

The UK has ambitious decarbonisation, climate change mitigation and energy transition goals. The upstream petroleum sector in the UK shares in these goals, as evidenced by its North Sea Transition Deal and as set out in its sector ‘Roadmap 2035’ for emissions reduction. Participation in an emissions trading scheme as a mechanism for achieving these goals is a key strategy identified in the sector roadmap. Currently, only qualifying installations in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) are charged for their emissions. Notwithstanding, prudent non-qualifying operators are also now incorporating these charges in their financial models for asset valuation purposes. This paper uses a recently updated database of 21 new UKCS fields to examine the effects of carbon emission charges on upstream petroleum operations in the province. We find that emission charges increase operating expenditures, which results (1) an acceleration of the timing of the economic limit of fields, leading to significantly lower petroleum production and carbon emissions; and (2) a reduction in the economic value of petroleum fields hence diminishing the competitiveness of the UKCS. These outcomes advance the energy transition cause of the UK. However, they give rise to major implications for the UK, including energy security, jobs, risk of exposure to a carbon leakage situation, and so on. We advocate a ‘just transition’ approach to energy transition, where petroleum production in the UKCS progresses but with a carbon footprint that is reduced and consistent with an economic optimum.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul-Salam, Yakubu & Kemp, Alex & Phimister, Euan, 2022. "Energy transition in the UKCS – Modelling the effects of carbon emission charges on upstream petroleum operations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:108:y:2022:i:c:s0140988322000792
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105898
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988322000792
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105898?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petter Osmundsen, Kjell Løvås, and Magne Emhjellen, 2022. "Investment Allocation with Capital Constraints. Comparison of Fiscal Regimes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    2. James W. McFarland & Leon Lasdon & Verne Loose, 1984. "Development Planning and Management of Petroleum Reservoirs Using Tank Models and Nonlinear Programming," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 270-289, April.
    3. Ghaith, Ahmad F. & Epplin, Francis M., 2017. "Consequences of a carbon tax on household electricity use and cost, carbon emissions, and economics of household solar and wind," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 159-168.
    4. Tvinnereim, Endre & Mehling, Michael, 2018. "Carbon pricing and deep decarbonisation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 185-189.
    5. Annegrete Bruvoll & Taran Fæhn, 2004. "Transboundary environmental policy effects: Markets and emission leakages," Discussion Papers 384, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    6. Stefan Ambec & Lars Ehlers, 2016. "Regulation via the Polluter‐pays Principle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(593), pages 884-906, June.
    7. Coria, Jessica & Jaraite, Jurate, 2015. "Carbon Pricing: Transaction Costs of Emissions Trading vs. Carbon Taxes," Working Papers in Economics 609, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Sam Meng & Mahinda Siriwardana & Judith McNeill, 2013. "The Environmental and Economic Impact of the Carbon Tax in Australia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 313-332, March.
    9. Bretschger, Lucas & Ramer, Roger & Schwark, Florentine, 2011. "Growth effects of carbon policies: Applying a fully dynamic CGE model with heterogeneous capital," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 963-980.
    10. Morgenstern, Richard D. & Ho, Mun & Shih, J.-S.Jhih-Shyang & Zhang, Xuehua, 2004. "The near-term impacts of carbon mitigation policies on manufacturing industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(16), pages 1825-1841, November.
    11. Kemp, Alexander G. & Stephen, Linda, 2010. "The Effects of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on Activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and CO2 Leakage," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-116, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    12. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2020. "Is Air Pollution Regulation Too Lenient? Evidence from US Offset Markets," NBER Working Papers 28199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Guo, Zhengquan & Zhang, Xingping & Zheng, Yuhua & Rao, Rao, 2014. "Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 455-462.
    14. Kamat, Rajnish & Rose, Adam & Abler, David, 1999. "The impact of a carbon tax on the Susquehanna River Basin economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 363-384, August.
    15. Floros, Nikolaos & Vlachou, Andriana, 2005. "Energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions in Greek manufacturing: Assessing the impact of a carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 387-413, May.
    16. J. S. Aronofsky & A. C. Williams, 1962. "The Use of Linear Programming and Mathematical Models in Under-Ground Oil Production," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 8(4), pages 394-407, July.
    17. Les Frair & Mike Devine, 1975. "Economic Optimization of Offshore Petroleum Development," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(12), pages 1370-1379, August.
    18. Abdul-Salam, Yakubu & Kemp, Alex & Phimister, Euan, 2021. "Unlocking the economic viability of marginal UKCS discoveries: Optimising cluster developments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Morten Lund, 2000. "Valuing Flexibility in Offshore Petroleum Projects," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 99(1), pages 325-349, December.
    20. Wissema, Wiepke & Dellink, Rob, 2007. "AGE analysis of the impact of a carbon energy tax on the Irish economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 671-683, March.
    21. Orlov, Anton & Grethe, Harald, 2012. "Carbon taxation and market structure: A CGE analysis for Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 696-707.
    22. Pope, Jeff & Owen, Anthony D., 2009. "Emission trading schemes: potential revenue effects, compliance costs and overall tax policy issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4595-4603, November.
    23. Kemp, Alexander G. & Stephen, Linda, 2010. "Taxation and Total Government Take from the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Following Phase 3 of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-114, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    24. Kemfert, Claudia & Welsch, Heinz, 2000. "Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution and the Economic Effects of CO2 Abatement: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 641-660, November.
    25. Dieter Helm, 2020. "The Environmental Impacts of the Coronavirus," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 21-38, May.
    26. Tagliapietra, Simone & Zachmann, Georg & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Glachant, Jean-Michel & Linares, Pedro & Loeschel, Andreas, 2019. "The European union energy transition: Key priorities for the next five years," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 950-954.
    27. Donald B. Marron & Eric J. Toder, 2014. "Tax Policy Issues in Designing a Carbon Tax," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 563-568, May.
    28. John Whalley & Randall Wigle, 1992. "Results for the OECD Comparative Modelling Project from the Whalley-Wigle Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 121, OECD Publishing.
    29. John Whalley & Randall Wigle, 1991. "Cutting CO2 Emissions: The Effects of Alternative Policy Approaches," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 109-124.
    30. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guo, Zhengquan & Zhang, Xingping & Zheng, Yuhua & Rao, Rao, 2014. "Exploring the impacts of a carbon tax on the Chinese economy using a CGE model with a detailed disaggregation of energy sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 455-462.
    2. Masoud Yahoo & Jamal Othman, 2017. "Carbon and energy taxation for CO2 mitigation: a CGE model of the Malaysia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 239-262, February.
    3. Liu, Lirong & Huang, Charley Z. & Huang, Guohe & Baetz, Brian & Pittendrigh, Scott M., 2018. "How a carbon tax will affect an emission-intensive economy: A case study of the Province of Saskatchewan, Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 817-826.
    4. Paula Pereda & Andrea Lucchesi, Carolina Policarpo Garcia, Bruno Toni Palialol, 2019. "Neutral carbon tax and environmental targets in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_02, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    5. Jin-Feng Zhou & Dan Wu & Wei Chen, 2022. "Cap and Trade Versus Carbon Tax: An Analysis Based on a CGE Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 853-885, February.
    6. Alberto Gago & Xavier Labandeira & Xiral López Otero, 2014. "A Panorama on Energy Taxes and Green Tax Reforms," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 208(1), pages 145-190, March.
    7. Niu, Tong & Yao, Xilong & Shao, Shuai & Li, Ding & Wang, Wenxi, 2018. "Environmental tax shocks and carbon emissions: An estimated DSGE model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 9-17.
    8. Lecca, Patrizio & Swales, Kim & Turner, Karen, 2011. "An investigation of issues relating to where energy should enter the production function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2832-2841.
    9. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Xuehui, 2011. "The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5137-5146, September.
    10. Weijiang Liu & Yangyang Li & Tingting Liu & Min Liu & Hai Wei, 2021. "How to Promote Low-Carbon Economic Development? A Comprehensive Assessment of Carbon Tax Policy in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Galindo, Luis Miguel & Beltrán, Allan & Ferrer, Jimy & Alatorre, José Eduardo, 2017. "Efectos potenciales de un impuesto al carbono sobre el producto interno bruto en los países de América Latina: estimaciones preliminares e hipotéticas a partir de un metaanálisis y una función de tran," Documentos de Proyectos 41867, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Yingbin Zhou & Siqi Lv & Jianlin Wang & Junbo Tong & Zhong Fang, 2022. "The Impact of Green Taxes on the Carbon Emission Efficiency of China’s Construction Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Zhai, Mengyu & Huang, Guohe & Liu, Lirong & Guo, Zhengquan & Su, Shuai, 2021. "Segmented carbon tax may significantly affect the regional and national economy and environment-a CGE-based analysis for Guangdong Province," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    14. Wei Chen & Jin-Feng Zhou & Shi-Yu Li & Yao-Chu Li, 2017. "Effects of an Energy Tax (Carbon Tax) on Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Guangdong Province-Based on a CGE Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-24, April.
    15. Li, Xiaoyu & Yao, Xilong, 2020. "Can energy supply-side and demand-side policies for energy saving and emission reduction be synergistic?--- A simulated study on China's coal capacity cut and carbon tax," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Yemane Wolde-Rufael & Eyob Mulat-weldemeskel, 2023. "Effectiveness of environmental taxes and environmental stringent policies on CO2 emissions: the European experience," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 5211-5239, June.
    17. Jia, Zhijie & Wen, Shiyan & Sun, Zao, 2022. "Current relationship between coal consumption and the economic development and China's future carbon mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Zhang, Kun & Xue, Mei-Mei & Feng, Kuishuang & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2019. "The economic effects of carbon tax on China’s provinces," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 784-802.
    19. Melike Bildirici & Yasemin Asu Çırpıcı & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2023. "Effects of Technology, Energy, Monetary, and Fiscal Policies on the Relationship between Renewable and Fossil Fuel Energies and Environmental Pollution: Novel NBARDL and Causality Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-27, October.
    20. Freire-González, Jaume, 2018. "Environmental taxation and the double dividend hypothesis in CGE modelling literature: A critical review," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 194-223.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:108:y:2022:i:c:s0140988322000792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.