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Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand


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  • Siu, Barbara W.Y.
  • Lo, Hong K.


This study developed a methodology to model doubly uncertain transportation network with stochastic link capacity degradation and stochastic demand. We consider that the total travel demand comprises of two parts, infrequent travelers and commuters. The traffic volume of infrequent travelers is stochastic, which adds to the network traffic in a random manner based on fixed route choice proportions. On the other hand, the traffic volume of commuters is stable or deterministic. Commuters acquire the network travel time variability from past experiences, factor them into their route choice considerations, and settle into a long-term habitual route choice equilibrium in which they have no incentive of switching away. To define this equilibrium, we introduce the notion of "travel time budget" to relate commuters' risk aversion on route choices in the presence of travel time variability. The travel time budget varies among commuters according to their degrees of risk aversion and requirements on punctual arrivals. We then developed a mixed-equilibrium formulation to capture these stochastic considerations and illustrated its properties through some numerical studies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

Volume (Year): 191 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (November)
Pages: 166-181

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:191:y:2008:i:1:p:166-181

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Cited by:
  1. Ng, ManWo & Waller, S. Travis, 2010. "A computationally efficient methodology to characterize travel time reliability using the fast Fourier transform," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1202-1219, December.
  2. Liu, Y. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Cheng, G.H. & Niu, Y.T. & An, K., 2009. "Development of an inexact optimization model for coupled coal and power management in North China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4345-4363, November.
  3. Chen, Bi Yu & Lam, William H.K. & Sumalee, Agachai & Li, Qingquan & Li, Zhi-Chun, 2012. "Vulnerability analysis for large-scale and congested road networks with demand uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 501-516.
  4. Li-Jun Tian & Hai-Jun Huang & Zi-You Gao, 2012. "A Cumulative Perceived Value-Based Dynamic User Equilibrium Model Considering the Travelers’ Risk Evaluation on Arrival Time," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 589-608, December.
  5. Ng, ManWo & Szeto, W.Y. & Travis Waller, S., 2011. "Distribution-free travel time reliability assessment with probability inequalities," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 852-866, July.
  6. Sumalee, Agachai & Xu, Wei, 2011. "First-best marginal cost toll for a traffic network with stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 41-59, January.
  7. Shi, Feng & Zhou, Zhao & Yao, Jia & Huang, Helai, 2012. "Incorporating transfer reliability into equilibrium analysis of railway passenger flow," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 378-385.
  8. ManWo Ng & Hong Lo, 2013. "Regional Air Quality Conformity in Transportation Networks with Stochastic Dependencies: A Theoretical Copula-Based Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 373-397, December.
  9. Yuan, PengCheng & Juan, ZhiCai, 2013. "The related congestion failure estimating methodology and model in transportation networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4330-4344.


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