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Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending

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  • Roth, Christopher
  • Settele, Sonja
  • Wohlfart, Johannes

Abstract

We examine how beliefs about the debt-to-GDP ratio affect people’s attitudes towards government spending and taxation. Using representative samples of the US population, we run a series of experiments in which we provide half of our respondents with information about the debt-to-GDP ratio in the US. Based on a total of more than 4,000 respondents, we find that most people underestimate the debt-to-GDP ratio and reduce their support for government spending once they learn about the actual amount of debt, but do not substantially alter their attitudes towards taxation. The treatment effects seem to operate through changes in expectations about fiscal sustainability and persist in a four-week follow-up.

Suggested Citation

  • Roth, Christopher & Settele, Sonja & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2022. "Beliefs about public debt and the demand for government spending," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 165-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:231:y:2022:i:1:p:165-187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.011
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    2. Jan Behringer & Lena Draeger & Sebastian Dullien & Sebastian Gechert, 2024. "News and Views on Public Finances: A Survey Experiment," IMK Working Paper 223-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. Bertoli, Paola & Grembi, Veronica & Morelli, Massimo & Rosso, Anna Cecilia, 2023. "In medio stat virtus? Effective communication and preferences for redistribution in hard times," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 105-147.
    4. Blesse, Sebastian & Lergetporer, Philipp & Nover, Justus & Werner, Katharina, 2023. "Transparency and policy competition: Experimental evidence from German citizens and politicians," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-007, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Jante Parlevliet & Massimo Giuliodori & Matthijs Rooduijn, 2023. "Populist attitudes, fiscal illusion and fiscal preferences: evidence from Dutch households," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 197(1), pages 201-225, October.
    6. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Sonja Settele, 2019. "How Do Beliefs about the Gender Wage Gap Affect the Demand for Public Policy?," CEBI working paper series 19-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    8. Rakshit, Sonali & Sahoo, Soham, 2023. "Biased teachers and gender gap in learning outcomes: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Keefer, Philip & Scartascini, Carlos & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2022. "Demand-side determinants of public spending allocations: Voter trust, risk and time preferences," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    10. Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw & Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Elena, 2023. "Enhancing Public Support for International Sanctions," OSF Preprints a2dyq, Center for Open Science.
    11. Fang, Ximeng & Innocenti, Stefania, 2023. "Increasing the acceptability of carbon taxation: The role of social norms and economic reasoning," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    12. Mishagina, Natalia & Montmarquette, Claude, 2021. "The role of beliefs in supporting economic policies: The case of the minimum wage," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1059-1087.
    13. Andreoli, Francesco & Olivera, Javier, 2020. "Preferences for redistribution and exposure to tax-benefit schemes in Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Ingar Haaland & Julian König & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Information Experiments," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 271, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    15. Markus Eller & Branimir Jovanovic & Thomas Scheiber, 2021. "What do people in CESEE think about public debt?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/21, pages 35-58.
    16. Grewenig, Elisabeth & Lergetporer, Philipp & Simon, Lisa & Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2023. "Can internet surveys represent the entire population? A practitioners’ analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Alessandra Casarico & Jana Schuetz & Silke Uebelmesser, 2024. "Gender Inequality over the Life Cycle, Information Provision and Policy Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 10916, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; Political attitudes; Beliefs; Expectations; Information;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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