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Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution

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  • Oulton, Nicholas

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method for estimating true cost-of-living (Konüs) indices, for large numbers of commodities, using data only on prices, aggregate budget shares and aggregate expenditure. Conventional chain indices are path-dependent unless income elasticities are (implausibly) all equal to 1. The method allows this difficulty to be overcome. I show that to estimate a Konüs index, only income and not price elasticities are required. The method is applied to estimate a Konüs price index for 70 products covering nearly all the UK's Retail Prices Index over 1974-2004, using the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System. The choice of base year for utility has a significant effect on the index.

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  • Oulton, Nicholas, 2008. "Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 306-324, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:144:y:2008:i:1:p:306-324
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali Hosseiny, 2015. "Violation of Invariance of Measurement for GDP Growth Rate and its Consequences," Papers 1507.04848, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    2. Nicholas Oulton, 2019. "GDP is a measure of output, not welfare. Or, HOS meets the SNA," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2019-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    3. Oulton, Nicholas, 2008. "Chain indices of the cost-of-living and the path-dependence problem: An empirical solution," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 306-324, May.
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2023. "The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: A Divisia approach to the System of National Accounts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(4), pages 261-282, July.
    5. Nicholas Oulton, 2012. "How To Measure Living Standards And Productivity," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 58(3), pages 424-456, September.
    6. Andrew Aitken & Martin Weale, 2020. "A Democratic Measure of Household Income Growth: Theory and Application to the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 589-610, July.
    7. Hammond, Peter J. & Liberini, Federica & Proto, Eugenio, 2011. "Individual Welfare and Subjective Well-Being : Commentary Inspired by Sacks, Stevenson and Wolfers," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 957, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Nicholas Oulton, 2022. "The Divisia approach to measuring output and productivity: with an application to the BEA-BLS integrated industry-level production account, 1987-2020," Discussion Papers 2217, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    9. Hosseiny, Ali, 2017. "A geometrical imaging of the real gap between economies of China and the United States," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 151-161.
    10. Bettina Aten & Marshall Reinsdorf, 2010. "Comparing the Consistency of Price Parities for Regions of the U.S. in an Economic Approach Framework," BEA Papers 0098, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    11. Nicholas Oulton, 2021. "The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: a Divisia approach to the SNA," Discussion Papers 2126, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    12. Oulton, Nicholas, 2015. "Space-time (in)consistency in the national accounts:causes and cures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62569, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Bettina Aten & Eric Figueroa & Troy Martin, 2011. "Notes on Estimating the Multi-Year Regional Price Parities by 16 Expenditure Categories: 2005-2009," BEA Working Papers 0071, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    14. Oulton, Nicholas, 2015. "Understanding the space–time (in)consistency of the national accounts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 21-23.
    15. Matthew J Osborne & Nathan H. Miller, 2011. "Competition among Spatially Differentiated Firms: An Estimator with an Application to Cement," BEA Working Papers 0072, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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