IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v465y2022ics0304380022000035.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reconstructing deforestation patterns in China from 2000 to 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yajuan
  • Zhang, Lijin
  • Wang, Huan
  • Wang, Yueyao
  • Ding, Jiaqi
  • Shen, Jiashu
  • Wang, Zheng
  • Liu, Yinglu
  • Liang, Chenyu
  • Li, Shuangcheng

Abstract

Forests are important for the global carbon cycle, hydrothermal balance, and climate change. Human activities can exert a significant impact on forest ecosystems, thereby having the potential to alter their physical and chemical properties and thus affecting carbon, water, and heat budgets, and climate change. The historical reconstruction of the disturbance of global forests can help us understand the processes and patterns of human activities and global change. In this paper, we construct a deforestation prediction model using a Spearman correlation coefficient and implement the XGBoost method, using Python 3.6, for the reconstruction of deforestation intensity data from 2000 to 2019. Secondly, the selection of the driver indicators is done by using extreme difference regularization to unify the magnitude, and the potential deforestation area risk index is calculated in the form of equal weights. Finally, the actual deforestation data were used for optimization and validation. The model shows that the deforestation hotspots are mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern regions of China and that there are large differences in deforestation in different provinces. In the future, the fine spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation in China during the historical period can be quantitatively reconstructed, which can provide some reference information for forest disaster prevention and forest management in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yajuan & Zhang, Lijin & Wang, Huan & Wang, Yueyao & Ding, Jiaqi & Shen, Jiashu & Wang, Zheng & Liu, Yinglu & Liang, Chenyu & Li, Shuangcheng, 2022. "Reconstructing deforestation patterns in China from 2000 to 2019," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:465:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022000035
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380022000035
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109874?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Souza, Rodrigo Antônio & De Marco, Paulo, 2018. "Improved spatial model for Amazonian deforestation: An empirical assessment and spatial bias analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Amin, A. & Choumert-Nkolo, J. & Combes, J.-L. & Combes Motel, P. & Kéré, E.N. & Ongono-Olinga, J.-G. & Schwartz, S., 2019. "Neighborhood effects in the Brazilian Amazônia: Protected areas and deforestation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 272-288.
    3. Camille Dezécache & Jean-Michel Salles & Bruno Hérault, 2018. "Questioning emissions-based approaches for the definition of REDD+ deforestation baselines in high forest cover/low deforestation countries," Post-Print hal-01952492, HAL.
    4. Byron, Carrie & Link, Jason & Costa-Pierce, Barry & Bengtson, David, 2011. "Calculating ecological carrying capacity of shellfish aquaculture using mass-balance modeling: Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(10), pages 1743-1755.
    5. Isabel M D Rosa & Drew Purves & Carlos Souza Jr & Robert M Ewers, 2013. "Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-14, October.
    6. María R. Felipe-Lucia & Santiago Soliveres & Caterina Penone & Peter Manning & Fons van der Plas & Steffen Boch & Daniel Prati & Christian Ammer & Peter Schall & Martin M. Gossner & Jürgen Bauhus & Fr, 2018. "Multiple forest attributes underpin the supply of multiple ecosystem services," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Khalatbari Limaki, Mahdieh & Es-hagh Nimvari, Majid & Alavi, Seyed Jalil & Mataji, Asadollah & Kazemnezhad, Farid, 2021. "Potential elevation shift of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion under future global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    8. Viola H. A. Heinrich & Ricardo Dalagnol & Henrique L. G. Cassol & Thais M. Rosan & Catherine Torres Almeida & Celso H. L. Silva Junior & Wesley A. Campanharo & Joanna I. House & Stephen Sitch & Tristr, 2021. "Large carbon sink potential of secondary forests in the Brazilian Amazon to mitigate climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Yuanwei Qin & Xiangming Xiao & Jinwei Dong & Yao Zhang & Xiaocui Wu & Yosio Shimabukuro & Egidio Arai & Chandrashekhar Biradar & Jie Wang & Zhenhua Zou & Fang Liu & Zheng Shi & Russell Doughty & Berri, 2019. "Improved estimates of forest cover and loss in the Brazilian Amazon in 2000–2017," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 764-772, August.
    10. Austin, K.G. & Mosnier, A. & Pirker, J. & McCallum, I. & Fritz, S. & Kasibhatla, P.S., 2017. "Shifting patterns of oil palm driven deforestation in Indonesia and implications for zero-deforestation commitments," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 41-48.
    11. Jian Ni, 2013. "Carbon storage in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems: approaching a more accurate estimate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(3), pages 905-917, August.
    12. Khuc, Quy Van & Tran, Bao Quang & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Paschke, Mark W., 2018. "Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Vietnam: An exploratory analysis at the national level," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 128-141.
    13. Shilong Piao & Jingyun Fang & Philippe Ciais & Philippe Peylin & Yao Huang & Stephen Sitch & Tao Wang, 2009. "The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7241), pages 1009-1013, April.
    14. Wang, Haoluan & Qiu, Feng, 2017. "Investigating the Impact of Agricultural Land Losses on Deforestation: Evidence From a Peri-urban Area in Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 9-18.
    15. Gollnow, Florian & Hissa, Leticia de Barros Viana & Rufin, Philippe & Lakes, Tobia, 2018. "Property-level direct and indirect deforestation for soybean production in the Amazon region of Mato Grosso, Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 377-385.
    16. de Souza, Rodrigo Antônio & De Marco, Paulo, 2014. "The use of species distribution models to predict the spatial distribution of deforestation in the western Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 250-259.
    17. Nansikombi, Hellen & Fischer, Richard & Ferrer Velasco, Rubén & Lippe, Melvin & Kalaba, Felix Kanungwe & Kabwe, Gillian & Günter, Sven, 2020. "Can de facto governance influence deforestation drivers in the Zambian Miombo?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Roberts Čakšs & Linda Čakša & Iveta Desaine & Zane Lībiete & Didzis Elferts & Aldis Butlers & Āris Jansons, 2021. "Long-Term Influence of Stump-Removal on Components of Hemiboreal Pine Forest Ecosystem," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Yunxia Wang & Guy Ziv & Marcos Adami & Cláudio Aparecido de Almeida & João Francisco Gonçalves Antunes & Alexandre Camargo Coutinho & Júlio César Dalla Mora Esquerdo & Alessandra Rodrigues Gomes & Dav, 2020. "Upturn in secondary forest clearing buffers primary forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 290-295, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Troxler, David & Zabel, Astrid & Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne, 2023. "Identifying drivers of forest clearances in Switzerland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Dietz, Julia & Treydte, Anna Christina & Lippe, Melvin, 2023. "Exploring the future of Kafue National Park, Zambia: Scenario-based land use and land cover modelling to understand drivers and impacts of deforestation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Skutsch, Margaret & Turnhout, Esther, 2020. "REDD+: If communities are the solution, what is the problem?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    5. Jieming Chou & Yidan Hao & Yuan Xu & Weixing Zhao & Yuanmeng Li & Haofeng Jin, 2023. "Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, April.
    6. Benjamin S. Thompson, 2023. "Impact investing in biodiversity conservation with bonds: An analysis of financial and environmental risk," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 353-368, January.
    7. Jose Manuel Ochoa-Quintero & Charlotte H. Chang & Toby A. Gardner & Mariluce Rezende Messias & William J. Sutherland & Fernanda A. C. Delben, 2017. "Habitat Loss on Rondon’s Marmoset Potential Distribution," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Ajanaku, B.A. & Collins, A.R., 2021. "Economic growth and deforestation in African countries: Is the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis applicable?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    9. Fitri Nurfatriani & Ramawati & Galih Kartika Sari & Heru Komarudin, 2019. "Optimization of Crude Palm Oil Fund to Support Smallholder Oil Palm Replanting in Reducing Deforestation in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-16, September.
    10. Nascibem, Fábio Gabriel & Da Silva, Ramon Felipe Bicudo & Viveiro, Alessandra Aparecida & Gonçalves Junior, Oswaldo, 2023. "The Role of Private Reserves of Natural Heritage (RPPN) on natural vegetation dynamics in Brazilian biomes," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Miao, Lu, 2023. "The greenhouse gas rebound effect from increased energy efficiency across China's staple crops," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Livia Marchetti & Valentina Cattivelli & Claudia Cocozza & Fabio Salbitano & Marco Marchetti, 2020. "Beyond Sustainability in Food Systems: Perspectives from Agroecology and Social Innovation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Garrett, R.D. & Grabs, J. & Cammelli, F. & Gollnow, F. & Levy, S.A., 2022. "Should payments for environmental services be used to implement zero-deforestation supply chain policies? The case of soy in the Brazilian Cerrado," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Pere Mercadé‐Melé & Carmina Fandos‐Herrera & Sofía Velasco‐Gómez, 2021. "How corporate social responsibility influences consumer behavior: An empirical analysis in the Spanish agrifood sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 590-611, July.
    15. Beygi Heidarlou, Hadi & Banj Shafiei, Abbas & Erfanian, Mahdi & Tayyebi, Amin & Alijanpour, Ahmad, 2020. "Armed conflict and land-use changes: Insights from Iraq-Iran war in Zagros forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. An, Hoang Tai, 2022. "Land degradation and solutions," OSF Preprints 36bs8, Center for Open Science.
    17. Nelson Villoria & Rachael Garrett & Florian Gollnow & Kimberly Carlson, 2022. "Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    18. Luyi Qiu & Kunying Niu & Wei He & Yaqi Hu, 2023. "Two Contribution Paths of Carbon Neutrality: Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sinks and Anthropogenic Carbon Emission Reduction—A Case of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Kai Yin & Dengsheng Lu & Yichen Tian & Qianjun Zhao & Chao Yuan, 2014. "Evaluation of Carbon and Oxygen Balances in Urban Ecosystems Using Land Use/Land Cover and Statistical Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    20. Figueroa, Daniela & Galeana-Pizaña, J. Mauricio & Núñez, Juan Manuel & Anzaldo Gómez, Carlos & Hernández-Castro, J. Roberto & Sánchez-Ramírez, María del Mar & Garduño, Andrea, 2021. "Assessing drivers and deterrents of deforestation in Mexico through a public policy tool. The adequacy of the index of economic pressure for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:465:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022000035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.