IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v272y2014icp59-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Author

Listed:
  • Arce, G.L.A.F.
  • Carvalho, J.A.
  • Nascimento, L.F.C.

Abstract

One of the main challenges of environment planning is to identify a model that connects all factors that determine the carbon cycle, that is: ocean–terrestrial ecosystem–anthropogenic emissions–atmosphere. Basic principle of mass conservation can be applied in statistical modeling with a historic time series to obtain the atmospheric CO2 concentration, making it possible to create scenarios that will help in the decision making process. A model that links all carbon cycle factors has been developed this article, focusing on the Boreal, Temperate, Tropical, and Polar thermal climatic zones to calculate atmospheric CO2 level. It was developed with nonparametric models based on carbon dioxide records from measurement stations: EIA (Energy Information Administration), CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center), FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), and SIO (Scripp Institution Oceanography). The advantage of the model developed here is that it is able to analyze different scenarios, considering both the behavior of particular countries or groups of countries in each thermal zone and their influence on the predicted concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Results show that in 2100, the atmospheric CO2 concentration will be four times that of the pre-industrial period. The Temperate zone already emits almost half of the carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; by 2100, this emission will increase 15 times more than that of the tropical zone. China will be responsible for nearly two times the emissions of the United States. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will stabilize when anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions decrease by at least 36% in the Temperate zone by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Arce, G.L.A.F. & Carvalho, J.A. & Nascimento, L.F.C., 2014. "A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 59-67.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:272:y:2014:i:c:p:59-67
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.09.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013004353
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.09.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter M. Cox & Phil P. Harris & Chris Huntingford & Richard A. Betts & Matthew Collins & Chris D. Jones & Tim E. Jupp & José A. Marengo & Carlos A. Nobre, 2008. "Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7192), pages 212-215, May.
    2. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
    3. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 184-187, November.
    4. Ajani, Judith I. & Keith, Heather & Blakers, Margaret & Mackey, Brendan G. & King, Helen P., 2013. "Comprehensive carbon stock and flow accounting: A national framework to support climate change mitigation policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 61-72.
    5. Bartsev, Sergey I. & Degermendzhi, Andrey G. & Erokhin, Dmitry V., 2008. "Principle of the worst scenario in the modelling past and future of biosphere dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 160-171.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    2. J. Javid, Roxana & Nejat, Ali & Hayhoe, Katharine, 2014. "Selection of CO2 mitigation strategies for road transportation in the United States using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 960-972.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naomi Vaughan & Timothy Lenton, 2011. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 745-790, December.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    3. Govind, Ajit & Chen, Jing Ming & Bernier, Pierre & Margolis, Hank & Guindon, Luc & Beaudoin, Andre, 2011. "Spatially distributed modeling of the long-term carbon balance of a boreal landscape," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2780-2795.
    4. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.
    5. Brovkin, Victor & Cherkinsky, Alexander & Goryachkin, Sergey, 2008. "Estimating soil carbon turnover using radiocarbon data: A case-study for European Russia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 178-187.
    6. Ulaganathan, Kandasamy & Goud, Sravanthi & Reddy, Madhavi & Kayalvili, Ulaganathan, 2017. "Genome engineering for breaking barriers in lignocellulosic bioethanol production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1080-1107.
    7. Brazhnik, Ksenia & Shugart, H.H., 2016. "SIBBORK: A new spatially-explicit gap model for boreal forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 182-196.
    8. Kai Yin & Dengsheng Lu & Yichen Tian & Qianjun Zhao & Chao Yuan, 2014. "Evaluation of Carbon and Oxygen Balances in Urban Ecosystems Using Land Use/Land Cover and Statistical Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Agudelo, César Augusto Ruiz & Bustos, Sandra Liliana Hurtado & Moreno, Carmen Alicia Parrado, 2020. "Modeling interactions among multiple ecosystem services. A critical review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    10. Ouardighi, Fouad El & Sim, Jeong Eun & Kim, Bowon, 2016. "Pollution accumulation and abatement policy in a supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 982-996.
    11. Kim, Hyeyoung & House, Lisa A. & KIm, Tae-Kyun, 2016. "Consumer perceptions of climate change and willingness to pay for mandatory implementation of low carbon labels: the case of South Korea," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(4), October.
    12. Guoju, Xiao & Weixiang, Liu & Qiang, Xu & Zhaojun, Sun & Jing, Wang, 2005. "Effects of temperature increase and elevated CO2 concentration, with supplemental irrigation, on the yield of rain-fed spring wheat in a semiarid region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 243-255, June.
    13. Sogol Moradian & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2021. "Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1089-1107, August.
    14. Viola, Flavio M. & Paiva, Susana L.D. & Savi, Marcelo A., 2010. "Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1964-1978.
    15. Farrelly, Damien J. & Everard, Colm D. & Fagan, Colette C. & McDonnell, Kevin P., 2013. "Carbon sequestration and the role of biological carbon mitigation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 712-727.
    16. Marc Kennedy & Clive Anderson & Anthony O'Hagan & Mark Lomas & Ian Woodward & John Paul Gosling & Andreas Heinemeyer, 2008. "Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 109-135, January.
    17. Yonghua Li & Song Yao & Hezhou Jiang & Huarong Wang & Qinchuan Ran & Xinyun Gao & Xinyi Ding & Dandong Ge, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.
    19. Xiongwen Chen & Wilfred Post & Richard Norby & Aimée Classen, 2011. "Modeling soil respiration and variations in source components using a multi-factor global climate change experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 459-480, August.
    20. Wang, Tao & Yu, Wei & Le Moullec, Yann & Liu, Fei & Xiong, Yili & He, Hui & Lu, Jiahui & Hsu, Emily & Fang, Mengxiang & Luo, Zhongyang, 2017. "Solvent regeneration by novel direct non-aqueous gas stripping process for post-combustion CO2 capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 23-32.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:272:y:2014:i:c:p:59-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.