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Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Peter M. Cox

    (School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter
    Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Phil P. Harris

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Richard A. Betts

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Matthew Collins

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Chris D. Jones

    (Met Office Hadley Centre)

  • Tim E. Jupp

    (School of Engineering, Computing and Mathematics, University of Exeter)

  • José A. Marengo

    (Brazilian Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil)

  • Carlos A. Nobre

    (Brazilian Centre for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, CPTEC/INPE, Sao Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract

Dry outlook for the Amazon The severe drought of 2005 in the western Amazonian rainforest, apparently associated with unusually high sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic ocean, was a dramatic event that prompted speculation that tropical forest dieback was a potential 'tipping point' of the climate system. A new analysis suggests that this event can be better understood with reference to the gradient in sea-surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic, of which the northern temperature anomalies are just one factor. When the effects of atmospheric aerosols are incorporated into the model, the observed variations in this temperature gradient over the past century can be reproduced. And projecting these trends to the future, the model suggests that sea-surface conditions conducive to droughts like that seen in 2005 will become much more common.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter M. Cox & Phil P. Harris & Chris Huntingford & Richard A. Betts & Matthew Collins & Chris D. Jones & Tim E. Jupp & José A. Marengo & Carlos A. Nobre, 2008. "Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7192), pages 212-215, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:453:y:2008:i:7192:d:10.1038_nature06960
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06960
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saowanee WIJITKOSUM, 2018. "Fuzzy AHP for drought risk assessment in Lam Ta Kong watershed, the north-eastern region of Thailand," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 218-225.
    2. Heloisa Ruivo & Gilvan Sampaio & Fernando M. Ramos, 2014. "Knowledge extraction from large climatological data sets using a genome-wide analysis approach: application to the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 347-361, May.
    3. Javier Tomasella & Patrícia Pinho & Laura Borma & José Marengo & Carlos Nobre & Olga Bittencourt & Maria Prado & Daniel Rodriguez & Luz Cuartas, 2013. "The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 723-746, February.
    4. Yanfeng Wang & Ping Huang, 2022. "Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    5. R. Roman-Cuesta & L. Rejalaga-Noguera & C. Pinto-García & J. Retana, 2014. "Pacific and Atlantic oceanic anomalies and their interaction with rainfall and fire in Bolivian biomes for the period 1992–2012," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 243-256, November.
    6. Naomi Vaughan & Timothy Lenton, 2011. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 745-790, December.
    7. Maristela Volpato & Caio F. Andrade & Elton L. Silva & Maria L. Barbosa & Melina D. Andrade & Pedro. V. Rocha & Rafael C. Delgado & Paulo E. Teodoro & Carlos A. Silva & Marcos G. Pereira, 2023. "Fire foci and their spatiotemporal relations to weather variables and land uses in the state of Mato Grosso," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 12419-12438, November.
    8. Philip Fearnside, 2013. "What is at stake for Brazilian Amazonia in the climate negotiations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 509-519, June.
    9. Thiago B. Murari & Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho & Marcelo A. Moret & Sergio Pitombo & Alex A. B. Santos, 2020. "Self-Affine Analysis of ENSO in Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Arce, G.L.A.F. & Carvalho, J.A. & Nascimento, L.F.C., 2014. "A time series sequestration and storage model of atmospheric carbon dioxide," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 59-67.

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