IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v13y2020i18p4816-d413688.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Self-Affine Analysis of ENSO in Solar Radiation

Author

Listed:
  • Thiago B. Murari

    (Gestão e Tecnologia Industrial (PPG GETEC), Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Salvador 41650-010, BA, Brazil)

  • Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho

    (Gestão e Tecnologia Industrial (PPG GETEC), Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Salvador 41650-010, BA, Brazil)

  • Marcelo A. Moret

    (Gestão e Tecnologia Industrial (PPG GETEC), Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Salvador 41650-010, BA, Brazil
    Senai CIMATEC, Universidade do Estado da Bahia—UNEB, Salvador 41150-000, BA, Brazil)

  • Sergio Pitombo

    (Gestão e Tecnologia Industrial (PPG GETEC), Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Salvador 41650-010, BA, Brazil)

  • Alex A. B. Santos

    (Gestão e Tecnologia Industrial (PPG GETEC), Centro Universitário SENAI CIMATEC, Salvador 41650-010, BA, Brazil)

Abstract

The major challenge we face today in the energy sector is to meet the growing demand for electricity with less impact on the environment. South America is an important player in the renewable energy resource. Brazil accelerated the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2018. From April of 2017 to April of 2018, the capacity increased by 1351.5%. It is expected to reach the value of 2.4 GW until the end of the year. The new Chilean regulation requests that 20% of the total electricity production in 2025 must come from renewable energy sources. The aim of this paper is to establish time series behavior changes between El Niño Southern Oscillation and the solar radiation resource in South America. The results can be used to validate the measured data of energy production for new solar plants. The method used to verify the behavior of the time series was the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. Solar radiation data were collected in twenty-five cities distributed inside the Brazilian solar belt, plus six cities in Chile, covering the continent from east to west, in a region with high potential of solar photovoltaic generation. The results show the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the climatic behavior of the evaluated data. It is a factor that may lead to the wrong forecast of the long-term potential solar power generation for the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago B. Murari & Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho & Marcelo A. Moret & Sergio Pitombo & Alex A. B. Santos, 2020. "Self-Affine Analysis of ENSO in Solar Radiation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4816-:d:413688
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4816/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4816/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Oliveira Santos, Maíra & Stosic, Tatijana & Stosic, Borko D., 2012. "Long-term correlations in hourly wind speed records in Pernambuco, Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1546-1552.
    2. Eduardo Manuel Godinho Rodrigues & Radu Godina & Mousa Marzband & Edris Pouresmaeil, 2018. "Simulation and Comparison of Mathematical Models of PV Cells with Growing Levels of Complexity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Nascimento Filho, A.S. & de Souza, J.W.G. & Pereira, A.R.B. & Santos, A.A.B. & da Cunha Lima, I.C. & da Cunha Lima, A.T. & Moret, M.A., 2017. "Comparative analysis on turbulent regime: A self-affinity study in fluid flow by using OpenFoam CFD," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 260-266.
    4. Didier Delignières & Kjerstin Torre & Pierre-Louis Bernard, 2011. "Transition from Persistent to Anti-Persistent Correlations in Postural Sway Indicates Velocity-Based Control," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, February.
    5. Pedro Bento & Hugo Nunes & José Pombo & Maria do Rosário Calado & Sílvio Mariano, 2019. "Daily Operation Optimization of a Hybrid Energy System Considering a Short-Term Electricity Price Forecast Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, March.
    6. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Nagarajan, Radhakrishnan, 2005. "A multifractal description of wind speed records," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 165-173.
    7. Chang, Tian-Pau & Liu, Feng-Jiao & Ko, Hong-Hsi & Huang, Ming-Chao, 2017. "Oscillation characteristic study of wind speed, global solar radiation and air temperature using wavelet analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 650-657.
    8. Mohammadi, Kasra & Goudarzi, Navid, 2018. "Association of direct normal irradiance with El Niño Southern Oscillation and its consequence on concentrated solar power production in the US Southwest," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1126-1137.
    9. Peter M. Cox & Phil P. Harris & Chris Huntingford & Richard A. Betts & Matthew Collins & Chris D. Jones & Tim E. Jupp & José A. Marengo & Carlos A. Nobre, 2008. "Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution," Nature, Nature, vol. 453(7192), pages 212-215, May.
    10. Martin Libra & Milan Daneček & Jan Lešetický & Vladislav Poulek & Jan Sedláček & Václav Beránek, 2019. "Monitoring of Defects of a Photovoltaic Power Plant Using a Drone," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-9, February.
    11. Monetti, Roberto A. & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin, 2003. "Long-term persistence in the sea surface temperature fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 581-589.
    12. Santos, J.V.C. & Moreira, D.M. & Moret, M.A. & Nascimento, E.G.S., 2019. "Analysis of long-range correlations of wind speed in different regions of Bahia and the Abrolhos Archipelago, Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 680-687.
    13. Grágeda, M. & Escudero, M. & Alavia, W. & Ushak, S. & Fthenakis, V., 2016. "Review and multi-criteria assessment of solar energy projects in Chile," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 583-596.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santos, José Vicente Cardoso & Perini, Noéle Bissoli & Moret, Marcelo Albano & Nascimento, Erick Giovani Sperandio & Moreira, Davidson Martins, 2021. "Scaling behavior of wind speed in the coast of Brazil and the South Atlantic Ocean: The crossover phenomenon," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    2. Stosic, Tatijana & Telesca, Luciano & Stosic, Borko, 2021. "Multiparametric statistical and dynamical analysis of angular high-frequency wind speed time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 566(C).
    3. Perini de Souza, Noéle Bissoli & Cardoso dos Santos, José Vicente & Sperandio Nascimento, Erick Giovani & Bandeira Santos, Alex Alisson & Moreira, Davidson Martins, 2022. "Long-range correlations of the wind speed in a northeast region of Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    4. Santos, E.C.O. & Guedes, E.F. & Zebende, G.F. & da Silva Filho, A.M., 2022. "Autocorrelation of wind speed: A sliding window approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 607(C).
    5. da Silva, Hérica Santos & Silva, José Rodrigo Santos & Stosic, Tatijana, 2020. "Multifractal analysis of air temperature in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    6. Luciano Telesca & Fabian Guignard & Nora Helbig & Mikhail Kanevski, 2019. "Wavelet Scale Variance Analysis of Wind Extremes in Mountainous Terrains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Anderson Palmeira & Éder Pereira & Paulo Ferreira & Luisa Maria Diele-Viegas & Davidson Martins Moreira, 2022. "Long-Term Correlations and Cross-Correlations in Meteorological Variables and Air Pollution in a Coastal Urban Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-12, November.
    8. dos Anjos, Priscilla Sales & da Silva, Antonio Samuel Alves & Stošić, Borko & Stošić, Tatijana, 2015. "Long-term correlations and cross-correlations in wind speed and solar radiation temporal series from Fernando de Noronha Island, Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 90-96.
    9. Telesca, Luciano & Lovallo, Michele & Kanevski, Mikhail, 2016. "Power spectrum and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of high-frequency wind measurements in mountainous regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1052-1061.
    10. Heloisa Ruivo & Gilvan Sampaio & Fernando M. Ramos, 2014. "Knowledge extraction from large climatological data sets using a genome-wide analysis approach: application to the 2005 and 2010 Amazon droughts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 347-361, May.
    11. Xu, Jintao & Chen, Fei & Xia, Entong & Gao, Chong & Deng, Chenggang, 2020. "An optimization design method and optical performance analysis on multi-sectioned compound parabolic concentrator with cylindrical absorber," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    12. HongGuang Sun & Lin Yuan & Yong Zhang & Nicholas Privitera, 2018. "An Investigation of Stretched Exponential Function in Quantifying Long-Term Memory of Extreme Events Based on Artificial Data following Lévy Stable Distribution," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-7, July.
    13. Méndez-Gordillo, Alma Rosa & Cadenas, Erasmo, 2021. "Wind speed forecasting by the extraction of the multifractal patterns of time series through the multiplicative cascade technique," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Nagarajan, Radhakrishnan & Kavasseri, Rajesh G., 2005. "Minimizing the effect of periodic and quasi-periodic trends in detrended fluctuation analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 777-784.
    15. Mahmoud Dhimish & Pavlos I. Lazaridis, 2022. "Approximating Shading Ratio Using the Total-Sky Imaging System: An Application for Photovoltaic Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-16, November.
    16. Delignières, Didier & Marmelat, Vivien, 2014. "Strong anticipation and long-range cross-correlation: Application of detrended cross-correlation analysis to human behavioral data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 47-60.
    17. Yuan, Naiming & Fu, Zuntao & Mao, Jiangyu, 2010. "Different scaling behaviors in daily temperature records over China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(19), pages 4087-4095.
    18. Zunino, Luciano & Figliola, Alejandra & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Garavaglia, Mario & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Multifractal structure in Latin-American market indices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 2331-2340.
    19. de Benicio, Rosilda B. & Stošić, Tatijana & de Figueirêdo, P.H. & Stošić, Borko D., 2013. "Multifractal behavior of wild-land and forest fire time series in Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6367-6374.
    20. Mena, R. & Escobar, R. & Lorca, Á. & Negrete-Pincetic, M. & Olivares, D., 2019. "The impact of concentrated solar power in electric power systems: A Chilean case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 258-283.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:18:p:4816-:d:413688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.