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Nonparametric and semiparametric evidence on the long-run effects of inflation on growth

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  • Vaona, A.
  • Schiavo, S.

Abstract

Two major findings of the empirical literature on the connec tion between inflation and output growth is that their relationship is non linear and that there exists a threshold inflation level be low which inflation has a positive impact on growth and above which inflation has a negative impact on growth. In this paper we adopt both a nonparametric estimator and a semiparametric IV one to show that the first finding holds true even dropping the specification assumptions typical of parametric models. We also show that a threshold level does exist and it is around 12% for developed countries. Below this level inflation does not appear to have any substantial effect on growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 94 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 452-458

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:94:y:2007:i:3:p:452-458

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  1. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
  2. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1.
  3. Anthony Philip Thirlwall & A.C. Barton, 1971. "Inflation and growth: the international evidence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 24(98), pages 263-275.
  4. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Max Gillman & Mark N. Harris & László Mátyás, 2004. "Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 149-167, January.
  6. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  7. Atish R. Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 98/68, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Pagan,Adrian & Ullah,Aman, 1999. "Nonparametric Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521586115, November.
  9. Temple, Jonathan, 2000. " Inflation and Growth: Stories Short and Tall," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 395-426, September.
  10. Judson, Ruth & Orphanides, Athanasios, 1999. "Inflation, Volatility and Growth," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 117-38, April.
  11. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor, 2001. "Does inflation matter for growth?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 405-428, December.
  12. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
  13. Park, Sangin, 2003. "Semiparametric instrumental variables estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 381-399, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2009. "Inflation and Growth: New Evidence From a Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2008. "Are any growth theories linear? Why we should care about what the evidence tells us," MPRA Paper 8767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andrea Vaona, 2008. "Regional evidence on financial development, finance term structure and growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 185-201, February.
  4. Eloi Laurent & Jérôme Creel & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2007. "Politiques et performances macroéconomiques de la zone euro : institutions, incitations, stratégies," Sciences Po publications N° 2007-23, Sciences Po.
  5. Daniel J. Henderson, 2010. "A test for multimodality of regression derivatives with application to nonparametric growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 458-480.
  6. Andrea Vaona, 2005. "Regional Evidence on the Finance-Growth Nexus," Working Papers 30, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  7. Wojciech Charemza & Svetlana Makarova & Imran Shah, 2013. "Making the most of High Inflation," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/01, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  8. Henderson, Daniel J., 2008. "A Test for Multimodality of Regression Derivatives with an Application to Nonparametric Growth Regressions," MPRA Paper 8768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Isabel Ortiz & Jingqing Chai & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Identifying Fiscal Space:Options for Social and Economic Development for Children and Poor Households in 184 Countries," Working papers 1108, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
  10. Danilo Trupkin & Raul Ibarra, 2011. "The Relationship between Inflation and Growth:A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach for Developed and Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo/Working Papers 1107, Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales y Economia. Universidad de Montevideo..

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