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Do floods scare off residents?

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  • Berlemann, Michael
  • Methorst, Joel
  • Thum, Marcel

Abstract

We use the 2002 flood disaster in the German state of Saxony as a natural experiment to study whether the population avoided disaster-prone areas after the flood. Such voting-by-feet location choices should enhance the resilience of municipalities in the future. Our difference-in-differences analysis with data from 419 municipalities over more than 10 years, however, shows that the communities affected by the flood had higher migration development than non-affected communities. The differential effect is also economically significant; the net migration rate is higher by approximately 2.5 people per 1000 inhabitants per year in affected municipalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Berlemann, Michael & Methorst, Joel & Thum, Marcel, 2023. "Do floods scare off residents?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:222:y:2023:i:c:s0165176522004165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110942
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leah Platt Boustan & Matthew E. Kahn & Paul W. Rhode, 2012. "Moving to Higher Ground: Migration Response to Natural Disasters in the Early Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 238-244, May.
    2. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Steinhardt, Max F. & Tutt, Jascha, 2015. "Do Natural Disasters Stimulate Individual Saving? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in a Highly Developed Country," IZA Discussion Papers 9026, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
    5. Michael Berlemann & Max Friedrich Steinhardt, 2017. "Climate Change, Natural Disasters, and Migration—a Survey of the Empirical Evidence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(4), pages 353-385.
    6. André Gröger & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Internal Labor Migration as a Shock Coping Strategy: Evidence from a Typhoon," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 123-153, April.
    7. Antwi-Boasiako Benjamin Addai, 2014. "Why Do Few Homeowners Insure Against Natural Catastrophe Losses?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 217-240, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peren Arin & Kevin Devereux & Joel Methorst & Marcel Thum, 2023. "Bringen klimabedingte Naturkatastrophen die Menschen dazu, grün zu wählen? Evidenz aus einem natürlichen Experiment in Deutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 30(06), pages 18-23, December.

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