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Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

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  • Feng, Qianqian
  • Sun, Xiaolei
  • Liu, Chang
  • Li, Jianping

Abstract

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s1062940820301960
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2020.101308
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    Cited by:

    1. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
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    3. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    6. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2023. "Modeling the global sovereign credit network under climate change," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market fear; Sovereign CDS; Exchange rate; Spillover effect; Spillover network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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