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Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market

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  • Chen, Chen
  • Lee, Hsiu-Chuan
  • Liao, Tzu-Hsiang

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent market returns and explores whether this effect will vary with various types of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market. Using index futures returns as the proxy of market returns, the empirical results show that the index risk-neutral skewness has a significantly negative effect on subsequent index futures returns. Moreover, the effect of institutional investor sentiment on subsequent index futures returns varies with various types of institutional investor sentiment. Finally, the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent index futures returns relies on various types of institutional investor sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Chen & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2016. "Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 203-225.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:35:y:2016:i:c:p:203-225
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.10.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana‐Maria Fuertes & Zhenya Liu & Weiqing Tang, 2022. "Risk‐neutral skewness and commodity futures pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 751-785, April.
    2. Jian, Zhihong & Li, Xupei, 2021. "Skewness-based market integration: A systemic risk measure across international equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Asset allocation and investment opportunities in emerging stock markets: Evidence from return asymmetry-based analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 187-200.
    4. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can skewness predict currency excess returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 628-641.
    5. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu, 2023. "The predictability of skewness risk premium on stock returns: Evidence from Chinese market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 576-594.
    6. Zhou, Liyun & Huang, Jialiang, 2020. "Excess co-movement of agricultural futures prices: Perspective from contagious investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Narayan Parab & Y. V. Reddy, 2020. "A cause and effect relationship between FIIs, DIIs and stock market returns in India: pre- and post-demonetization analysis," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index risk-neutral skewness; Index futures returns; Institutional investor sentiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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