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Default risk, macroeconomic conditions, and the market skewness risk premium

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  • Xu, Zhongxiang
  • Li, Xiafei
  • Chevapatrakul, Thanaset
  • Gao, Ning

Abstract

Previous literature finds that stocks with low market skewness risk outperform stocks with high market skewness risk. Using the portfolio sort approach, we show that this market skewness risk premium is much more pronounced among stocks with low default risk or under good economic conditions. The premium vanishes among stocks with high default risk or under poor economic conditions. Further, the market skewness risk is negatively priced only for stocks with low default risk or in good economic times. It is not priced when firm-level default risk is high or when macroeconomic conditions are bad. Our findings suggest that the market skewness risk premium and the pricing of market skewness risk are conditional on both firm-level default risk and country-level macroeconomic conditions. This is because investors’ aversion to default risk and downside market risk changes their attitudes towards positive market skewness risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhongxiang & Li, Xiafei & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Gao, Ning, 2022. "Default risk, macroeconomic conditions, and the market skewness risk premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622000869
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102683
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    Cited by:

    1. Ni, Zhongxin & Wang, Linyu, 2023. "The predictability of skewness risk premium on stock returns: Evidence from Chinese market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 576-594.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Positive skewness preference; Market skewness risk premium; Default risk; Macroeconomic conditions; State-dependent risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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