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Option-implied information and predictability of extreme returns

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  • Vilkovz, Grigory
  • Xiaox, Yan

Abstract

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above other option-implied variables. Stock-specific tail loss measure predicts individual expected returns and magnitude of realized stock-specific crashes in the cross-section of stocks. An investor that cares about the left tail of her wealth distribution benefits from using the tail loss measure as an information variable to construct managed portfolios of a risk-free asset and market index.

Suggested Citation

  • Vilkovz, Grigory & Xiaox, Yan, 2013. "Option-implied information and predictability of extreme returns," SAFE Working Paper Series 5, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:5
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2209654
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaw‐Huei Wang & Kuang‐Chieh Yen, 2019. "The information content of the implied volatility term structure on future returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(2), pages 380-406, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    extreme value theory; tail measure; implied correlation; variance risk premium; option-implied distribution; predictability; portfolio optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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