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Carbon pricing and terms of trade effects for China and India: A general equilibrium analysis

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  • Pradhan, Basanta K.
  • Ghosh, Joydeep
  • Yao, Yun-Fei
  • Liang, Qiao-Mei

Abstract

Using country-specific dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, this paper estimates carbon prices in China and India, and compares the effects of carbon pricing policies under terms of trade effects. Estimated carbon prices are higher in China due to differences in emission intensity and in the rate of deployment of new technologies in the models. Differences in carbon prices open up the possibility of carbon trading between the two countries to achieve mitigation objectives. Further, under assumptions about different exchange rate regimes and international fossil fuel prices, the effects of carbon pricing policies on the two economies are mostly similar in terms of direction but, expectedly, different in terms of magnitude. Terms of trade effects could exacerbate carbon pricing effects to a greater degree in China as the country is significantly more dependent than India on external trade and investment. Policymakers should factor in terms of trade effects while designing or evaluating carbon pricing policies in the two countries.

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  • Pradhan, Basanta K. & Ghosh, Joydeep & Yao, Yun-Fei & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "Carbon pricing and terms of trade effects for China and India: A general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 60-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:60-74
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.017
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    5. Hongzhong Fan & Md Ismail Hossain, 2018. "Technological Innovation, Trade Openness, CO2 Emission and Economic Growth: Comparative Analysis between China and India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(6), pages 240-257.
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    7. Chang-Jing Ji & Xiao-Yi Li & Yu-Jie Hu & Xiang-Yu Wang & Bao-Jun Tang, 2019. "Research on carbon price in emissions trading scheme: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1381-1396, December.
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    9. Abeer Elshennawy & Dirk Willenbockel, 2021. "The Effect of a Carbon Tax on The Egyptian Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers 1525, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2021.
    10. Apoorva Gurtu & Vidhisha Vyas & Amulya Gurtu, 2022. "Emissions Reduction Policies and Their Effects on Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, September.
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    13. Levent Aydın, 2018. "The possible macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of carbon taxation on Turkey’s economy: A computable general equilibrium analyses," Energy & Environment, , vol. 29(5), pages 784-801, August.
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