Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Impact of foreign political instability on Chinese exports

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bashir, Malik Fahim
  • Xu, Changsheng
  • Zaman, Khalid
  • Akhmat, Ghulam
  • Ikram, Muhammad
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    International trade promotes economic development and leads to peace and stability in a country. Political instability affects trade through its direct effect on income and prices and indirectly through its influence on investment in physical capital. This study aims to examine the impact of foreign political instability on Chinese exports. A panel data set of 121 importing countries, covering time period from 1988 to 2011 is used to investigate the potential impact of foreign political instability on Chinese exports. The data was analyzed using the alternative dynamic panel and dynamic system generalized method of moments (SGMM). Three measures of political instability including political safety, revolutionary wars and adverse regime change have been used to analyze the impact of foreign political instability on Chinese exports. Results suggest that foreign political instability (adverse regime change) has negative and statistically significant impact on Chinese export. The results further show that income and real exchange rate have a positive and significant impact on Chinese exports.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313002186
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 802-807

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:802-807

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

    Related research

    Keywords: International trade; Political instability; Exchange rate; Chinese exports; Dynamic panel model;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Nunn, Nathan, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," Scholarly Articles 4686801, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    5. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Lussier, Martine, 1993. "Impacts of Exports on Economic Performance: A Comparative Study," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 2(1), pages 106-27, May.
    7. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    8. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    9. Alex Cukierman & Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1989. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," NBER Working Papers 3199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    11. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena & Traynor, Thomas L, 1999. "Political Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 52-86, March.
    12. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-41, July.
    13. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1988. "External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk," UCLA Economics Working Papers 538, UCLA Department of Economics.
    14. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-25, January.
    15. Ghura, Dhaneshwar, 1995. "Macro Policies, External Forces, and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(4), pages 759-78, July.
    16. Titus O. Awokuse & Conrado M. Gempesaw II, 2005. "Foreign political instability and U.S. agricultural exports: evidence from panel data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(15), pages 1-12.
    17. Hsiao,Cheng, 2003. "Analysis of Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521522717.
    18. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to "Difference" and "System" GMM in Stata," Working Papers 103, Center for Global Development.
    19. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
    20. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    21. Summary, Rebecca M, 1989. "A Political-Economic Model of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 179-82, February.
    22. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    23. Augstin Kwasi Fosu, 2003. "Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 68-83.
    24. Awokuse, Titus O. & Gempesaw, Conrado M., II, 2003. "Impact Of Foreign Political And Institutional Instability On U.S. Agricultural Trade," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22246, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    25. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:15:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Ross, Michael L., 2004. "How Do Natural Resources Influence Civil War? Evidence from Thirteen Cases," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(01), pages 35-67, February.
    27. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2002. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Implications of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 329-348, 01.
    28. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
    29. Roubini, Nouriel, 1991. "Economic and political determinants of budget deficits in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1, Supple), pages S49-S72, March.
    30. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
    31. Srivastava, Rajendra K & Green, Robert T, 1986. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 623-40, October.
    32. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, S.J., 1999. "Insecurity and the Pattern of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 418, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 03 Aug 2000.
    33. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    34. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-73, October.
    35. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:802-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.