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Análisis del Endeudamiento de los Hogares Colombianos

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  • Mario alejandro González

    ()

  • John Jairo León

    ()

Abstract

Este documento analiza los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares en Colombia en los últimos 14 años. A partir de un modelo simple de elecci´on y con base en los datos de las Cuentas Financieras del Banco de la Rep´ublica y de la muestra aleatoria codificada de los renglones de las declaraciones correspondientes a los contribuyentes personas naturales declarantes del impuesto sobre la renta para los períodos gravables 1993 a 2004, se determinan las principales variables que afectan la decisión de endeudamiento. Los resultados sugieren que el colateral, los niveles de deuda anterior y la carga financiera son los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares en Colombia y, por lo tanto, las acciones de política deben enfocarse en vigilar el patrimonio de los hogares y la dinámica de la tasa de interés para evitar una crisis de repudio similar a aquella de 1999.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 452.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:452

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Related research

Keywords: endeudamiento; balance de los hogares; racionamiento de crédito; modelos de datos panel dinámicos. Classification JEL: C22; D13; D31.;

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  1. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Assets: Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and the United States," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  2. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  3. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  4. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 615-643.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  6. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  7. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
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