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Detecting sudden changes in volatility estimated from high, low and closing prices

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  • Kumar, Dilip
  • Maheswaran, S.

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the size and power properties of Inclan and Tiao's (1994) Iterated Cumulative Sum of Squares (IT ICSS) algorithm for detecting sudden changes in volatility. We make use of the variance estimator that utilizes high, low and closing prices proposed by Rogers and Satchell (1991) (RS) and compare it with the performance of the demeaned squared returns. We find that the IT ICSS algorithm exhibits more desirable size and power properties when applied with the RS estimator in comparison to the demeaned squared returns. On the empirical side, we apply the IT ICSS algorithm with the RS estimator and demeaned squared returns of the S&P 500, CAC 40, FTSE 100, IBOVESPA and SZSE Composite indices to detect sudden changes in volatility of both developed and emerging markets. We find that most of the structural breaks detected by the RS estimator can be related to major macroeconomic events while very few of the structural breaks detected by demeaned squared returns can be related to macroeconomic events and hence are probably spurious.

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  • Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2013. "Detecting sudden changes in volatility estimated from high, low and closing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 484-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:484-491
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.12.021
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    2. Kumar, Dilip, 2015. "Sudden changes in extreme value volatility estimator: Modeling and forecasting with economic significance analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 354-371.
    3. Dilip Kumar, 2016. "Sudden changes in crude oil price volatility: an application of extreme value volatility estimator," American Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3/4), pages 215-234.
    4. Reem Khamis Hamdan & Allam Mohammed Hamdan, 2020. "Liner and nonliner sectoral response of stock markets to oil price movements: The case of Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 336-348, July.
    5. Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov, 2018. "Volatility Spillover Effect between Stock and Exchange Rate in Oil Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-326.
    6. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting volatility of foreign exchange markets of oil exporters: The importance of scheduled and unscheduled news announcements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 101-119.
    7. Aloui, Chaker & Hamida, Hela ben, 2014. "Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 349-380.
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    9. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2013. "Dynamic relationship between precious metals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 504-511.
    10. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2015. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, asymmetric volatility transmission, and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and USD exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 46-60.
    11. Yong Jiang & Chao-Qun Ma & Xiao-Guang Yang & Yi-Shuai Ren, 2018. "Time-Varying Volatility Feedback of Energy Prices: Evidence from Crude Oil, Petroleum Products, and Natural Gas Using a TVP-SVM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Anthony Msafiri Nyangarika & Alexey Yurievich Mikhaylov & Bao-jun Tang, 2018. "Correlation of Oil Prices and Gross Domestic Product in Oil Producing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 42-48.
    13. Walid Mensi & Shawkat Hammoude & Seong-Min Yoon, 2014. "Structural Breaks, Dynamic Correlations, Volatility Transmission, and Hedging Strategies for International Petroleum Prices and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate," Working Papers 884, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
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    15. Mansour Khalili Araghi & Majid Mirzaee Ghazani, 2015. "Abrupt Changes in Volatility: Evidence from TEPIX Index in Tehran Stock Exchange," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(3), pages 377-393, Autumn.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    IT ICSS algorithm; Regime shifts; Monte Carlo simulation; Rogers and Satchell estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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