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Sudden changes in volatility: The case of five central European stock markets

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  • Wang, Ping
  • Moore, Tomoe
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates sudden changes in volatility in the stock markets of new European Union (EU) members by utilizing the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using weekly data over the sample period 1994-2006, the time period of sudden change in variance of returns and the length of this variance shift are detected. A sudden change in volatility seems to arise from the evolution of emerging stock markets, exchange rate policy changes and financial crises. Evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, the persistence of volatility is reduced significantly in every series. It suggests that many previous studies may have overestimated the degree of volatility persistence existing in financial time series.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 33-46

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:33-46

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

    Related research

    Keywords: Stock return volatility ICSS algorithm Emerging stock markets GARCH;

    References

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    1. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
    2. Issam Abdalla & Victor Murinde, 1997. "Exchange rate and stock price interactions in emerging financial markets: evidence on India, Korea, Pakistan and the Philippines," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 25-35.
    3. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704.
    4. Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
    5. Sunil Poshakwale & Victor Murinde, 2001. "Modelling the volatility in East European emerging stock markets: evidence on Hungary and Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 445-456.
    6. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
    7. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2002. "The effects of the introduction of the euro on the volatility of European stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2047-2064, October.
    8. Moore, Tomoe, 2007. "The Euro and Stock Markets in Hungary, Poland, and UK," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 69-90.
    9. Ewing, Bradley T. & Malik, Farooq, 2005. "Re-examining the asymmetric predictability of conditional variances: The role of sudden changes in variance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2655-2673, October.
    10. Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Monetary Policy: An ARCH Application," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 66-77, February.
    11. Malik, Farooq, 2003. "Sudden changes in variance and volatility persistence in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 217-230, July.
    12. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Kumar, Dilip & Maheswaran, S., 2013. "Detecting sudden changes in volatility estimated from high, low and closing prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 484-491.
    2. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
    3. Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2011. "On the relationship of persistence and number of breaks in volatility: new evidence for three CEE countries," MPRA Paper 27927, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cho, Hwan-Gue & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Modeling sudden volatility changes: Evidence from Japanese and Korean stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(17), pages 3543-3550.
    5. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Post-Print hal-00940312, HAL.
    6. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2011. "Structural changes and volatility transmission in crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(23), pages 4317-4324.
    7. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Thomas Lagoarde-Segot, 2013. "Trading patterns at the Tokyo Stock Exchange, 1931-1940," CEH Discussion Papers 012, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    8. Esqueda, Omar A. & Assefa, Tibebe A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2012. "Financial globalization and stock market risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 87-102.

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